Situationer: IPP needs strong ally to win Punjab

LAHORE: The newly-established Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party (IPP) will have to go extra mile to win seats in Punjab in the upcoming general elections as it still lacks candidates who can win without the support of any ally.

Almost all IPP candidates who have contested more than one election in their political career have suffered defeat, either by the PMLN or the PTI on the soil of Punjab. Apparently, the IPP seems to be an ally of the PMLN, but after the July 2022 episode, when 15 out of the total candidates lost elections on the symbol of Tiger, local PMLN organizations want the former party ticket-holders in the contest, who were fielded in the 2018 general elections. Under this situation, it would become very difficult for the PMLN to accommodate IPP candidates while sacrificing its own party stalwarts as this would lead to further infightings and split of votes in constituencies. Even if we assess the electoral history of the IPP leadership, we find that its top leader, Chairman Jehangir Khan Tareen, or his group in his own district Lodhran have lost two NA elections in last 10 years and won two, first in 2015 by-polls and then in 2018 general elections. This shows that even in the district of Jehangir Khan Tareen, the IPP lacks secure seats and without an ally like the PMLN or the PPP, the contest could go either way. Tareen made his electoral debut from Rahim Yar Khan, not from Lodhran, in 2002. He got elected as MNA from NA 195 on PMLF ticket in 2002. His first direct contest was from his own district in 2013 when he was fielded as a PTI candidate against PMLN’s Siddique Baloch in NA 154. In that contest, Baloch was victorious. Two and a half years later, in 2015, Tareen won the by-poll from the same seat with a thumping majority. Unfortunately, he had to face disqualification due to a court order and in early 2018, his son Ali Tareen was fielded from the same seat, but he lost to PMLN’s Pir Iqbal Shah. In the 2018 general elections, Tareen backed PTI candidate Mian Shafique who won from the old NA 154 (currently NA 161) seat and PMLN’s Siddique Baloch suffered defeat. The PTI candidate got around 122,000 votes whereas the PMLN candidate stood second with around 116,000 votes. It is significant to mention the poll result because Tareen and his group were siding with the PTI then, but now the PTI vote was against the IPP. In this way, Tareen will have to purely rely on the strength of his own group and support of a mainstream party would be helpful. If we see other notables of the IPP, we find that almost every politician siding with this newly-established group has a tough ask ahead in his or her respective constituency, but with the addition of a strong ally, chances of victory would brighten up.

In Lahore, IPP President Abdul Aleem Khan or his group has shown remarkable results on provincial seats, which is quite significant in an otherwise PMLN-dominated city. A city where it has always been very hard to defeat the PMLN, Abdul Aleem Khan or his panel won almost every provincial election other than 2008. Abdul Aleem Khan won 2003 by-polls from the then PP 147, the seat that was vacated by Sardar Ayaz Sadiq of the PMLN, who retained NA 122 seat. In that contest, Abdul Aleem Khan defeated PMLN’s Zaeem Qadri and Jamaat-e-Islami’s Amirul Azeem. His group won another seat from the soil of Lahore three years later when his close aide Shoaib Siddiqi won a provincial assembly by-poll held on a seat vacated by PMLN’s Amjad Aziz Malik. In 2015, Abdul Aleem Khan ran for NA 122 by-polls against PMLN’s Sardar Ayaz Sadiq and after a very tough contest, the PMLN won that seat. However, the PMLN suffered an upset from the same constituency when the panel of Abdul Aleem Khan clinched the Punjab Assembly seat of PP 147 when PMLN’s former MPA Mian Mohsin Latif was defeated. In the 2018 general elections, Abdul Aleem Khan and his panel member Shoaib Siddiqui won both the Punjab Assembly seats they were contesting. Apparently, if the PMLN forms an alignment with the IPP, Abdul Aleem Khan is quite likely to be fielded on more than one seat and like other districts, at least in Lahore, he may not face much opposition from the supporters of allies. Saeed Akbar Niwani is also an IPP figure with a terrific record on provincial assembly seats. He won 1985, 1988, 1990, 1993, 1997, 2002 and 2008 elections from Bhakkar, mostly as an independent candidate. He could not return to the Punjab Assembly in 2013 while his group was in clash with the PMLN. In 2018, he joined the PTI after winning the election due to Tareen’s lobbying and was amongst those who tendered resignation and were fielded on PMLN ticket to improve the number game in the Punjab Assembly. However, he suffered defeat in the hands of PTI’s Irfanullah Niazi. Now in the next general elections, an interesting situation is likely to be seen in his constituency where local groups have mostly a key impact on election results. Syed Sumsam Bokhari, who has also recently joined the IPP, has been elected MNA once from Okara and after parting ways with the PTI and still no adjustment announced with the PMLN, he may also have a tough contest ahead. Sumsam Bokhari’s first election was as an independent candidate when he almost caused an upset against PMLQ’s Gulzar Sibtain Shah. In 2002, from NA 145, a neck-on-neck contest took place between PMLQ’s Syed Gulzar Sibtain Shah and Independent candidate Sumsam Bokhari. Gulzar Sibtain Shah won that contest with a margin of merely a few hundred votes. Although the results were controversial, the then ruling party PMLQ candidate Gulzar Sibtain Shah was notified as winner. However, in the next general elections held in February 2008, Sumsam Bokhari contested on PMLN ticket and won with a big margin against former MNA Gulzar Sibtain Shah. In that contest, Sumsam bagged over 64,000 votes and his lead over his nearest opponent was around 22,000 votes. In the 2013 general elections which were a landslide victory for the PMLN in urban Punjab, the seat was won by Syed Ashiq Hussein Shah who got over 80,000 votes.

By 2016, Sumsam Bokhari joined the PTI and was fielded from NA 141 (polls were held under new delimitations) in 2018, but once again, it was PMLN’s Nadeem Shafqat Rabhera who won this seat. Now if the PMLN has a strong candidate in the constituency, the IPP will have to face a real test because in the absence of an ally and facing the possible anger of PTI voters on ballot, even strong candidates have a tough task ahead. Almost a similar situation prevails when it comes to the constituency of Dr Firdous Ashiq Awan and Sialkot politics. Dr Firdous Ashiq Awan first got elected as MNA on the seat reserved for women in 2002, representing the PMLQ. By late 2007, she joined the PPP and created the biggest upset in Punjab’s history as a woman as she defeated the outgoing National Assembly speaker Chaudhry Ameer Hussein.

Nevertheless, other leaders of the IPP do not have an easy going. Fayyazul Hassan Chohan, former provincial minister of the PTI between 2018-2022, may face a very tough time as an aspirant of ticket or even as a candidate. He was first elected MPA on the ticket of MMA in the 2002 general elections. In that first election when he became MPA, he got 13,738 votes. In the next general elections while Chohan was the PMLQ candidate, he suffered a defeat with a margin of around 22,000 votes and stood at number four. The winner was PMLN’s Raja Hanif Abbasi Advocate who bagged 26,489 votes whereas Chohan got around 4,400 votes.

Imran Ismael, former Sindh governor who is also part of the IPP, made his electoral debut in 1997. As a PTI candidate, he got 1302 votes. The winner in that contest was Haq Parast Group (MQM) candidate Waseem Akhter. Imran Ismael, however, got elected MPA from PS 111 and got 30,576 votes and PPP’s Murtaza Wahab stood at number three in that contest.

IPP Secretary Information Dr Firdous Ashiq Awan, while talking to The News, has stated her party would field candidates in every constituency and contest the poll on the basis of its roots and connectivity with people. She said so far there had been no decision regarding adjustment with any party.