Erdogan’s popularity

The May 14 Turkish presidential election has failed to produce a clear winner in a close race. Turkish President Erdogan and opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu have each failed to bag at least 50 per cent votes in the first round.

The second round will take place on May 28. Erdogan has become the frontrunner in the second round. May 14 was a night to celebrate for Erdogan supporters as not only did he lead the race in the presidential elections but the ruling party-led People’s Alliance defeated the opposition alliance in the recently held parliamentary elections.

Erdogan who is now largely seen as a rightwing populist defied all odds to finish at the top in the first round of knife-edge presidential elections on May14. He bagged 49.52 per cent or 27.1 million votes in the first round and finished ahead of his main rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Erdogan bagged nearly 2.5 million more votes than his closet rival.

Kemal Kilicdaroglu got 44.88 per cent or 24.6 million votes and finished in second place. Leader of an ultranationalist party Sinan Ogan came third in the election and secured 2.8 million votes (5.17 per cent). Most surveys had indicated that Erdogan would finish in second place behind Kilicdaroglu. But he narrowly missed the chance to win another five-year presidential term.

In the parliamentary elections, the Erdogan-led People’s Alliance has maintained its majority in the Turkish parliament. The rightwing nationalist People’s Alliance led by the Justice and Development Party (AKP) of Erdogan has won 322 out of 600 seats. The six-party opposition alliance (Nation’s Alliance) could only manage to win 212 seats. It was a disappointing night for the opposition alliance. The left-wing Labour and Freedom alliance won 66 seats.

The results of both presidential and parliamentary elections clearly show that Erdogan lost nearly 7.0 per cent votes compared to 2018. The AKP’s votes fell from 42 per cent to 35 per cent in 2023. But he has kept his religious and nationalistic support base intact.

The turnout was a record high of 86.98 per cent as more than 55.8 million voters turned out to vote. It was also high in the earthquake-affected areas. Despite thousands of deaths and injuries in these areas, voters participated in the electoral process – the turnout was in the range of 85-89 per cent in most of the 11 provinces.

There was a general perception before the elections that Erdogan had lost significant support and popularity due to the economic crisis, high inflation, rising debt, free fall of the Turkish lira and the government’s lack-luster early response in the devastating earthquake. The opposition was hoping to capitalize on these negative sentiments but failed to fully capitalize on the situation and defeat Erdogan who – as the longest serving Turkish leader – has now been ruling since 2002.

Erdogan has not only survived in the first round but won a majority in parliament despite the fact that inflation is 43.5 per cent in April. High inflation and the deepening economic crisis have hit the Turkish people hard. There is anger among sections of society. But the opposition failed to win the trust of many people on the revival of the economy and other issues.

Besides using state media for his election campaigns, Erdogan used other popular measures as well. He used state control over the media in an unscrupulous way. He was given a lot more coverage compared to the opposition candidate, and also successfully exploited the strong anti-US sentiment that does exist in Turkish society. According to the latest opinion poll 90 per cent Turks consider themselves anti-American. Erdogan and the AKP also whipped up Turkish nationalism during the campaign.

He also used popular measures like raising the minimum wage by 55 per cent for everyone in January and another 45 per cent for civil servants a week before the election. He also lowered gas bills and reduced the retirement age, allowing two million workers to retire immediately.

The opposition failed to come up with an alternate economic plan to fix the economy. It could not convince voters that it was capable of solving issues like high inflation, lower GDP growth and weak currency. The lack of trust among some sections of voters resulted in the defeat of the opposition alliance.

The opposition was hoping that voters in earthquake-affected areas were not happy with the Erdogan government and might vote for them. There was anger among people in earthquake-affected areas against the lackluster response of the government. But this anger subdued as the government made all-out efforts to provide rescue and relief for the affected. Erdogan succeeded in convincing voters that his government would reconstruct their damaged houses and other infrastructure. The people were also not happy with the government’s construction policy. The government was forced to take action against some real-estate developers and builders.

Contrary to the opposition’s expectations, the earthquake-affected areas voted largely for Erdogan. The AKP won 10 out of the 11 provinces severely affected by the devastating February earthquake. These areas are considered as AKP strongholds and Erdogan retained them. He seems to have the upper hand in the second round. His lead of nearly five percentage points over his main rival could prove to be decisive. The more than 5.1 percent votes of nationalist candidate Sinan Ogan are also going to be crucial for both leading candidates.

The momentum is clearly with Erdogan. The opposition seems demoralized after the defeat. Most political analysts and experts are predicting Erdogan’s victory in the second round. The opposition needs a big surge in its support to cause an upset in the second round.

The writer is a freelance journalist.