News Analysis: Punjab CM Parvez Elahi will need magic number of 186

KARACHI: Punjab CM Pervaiz Elahi will need to get the ‘magic number’ of 186 in a vote of confidence to continue as CM Punjab. Per legal experts, after the governor’s order, no attempt at dissolution of the assembly can be made till the motion for confidence is acted on. Journalist and lawyer Muneeb Farooq explains the process thus: “under Article 130 (7), the governor can ask the leader of the House or the provincial assembly to get a fresh vote of confidence if the governor feels that the CM has lost the confidence of the house. If the CM gets the vote of confidence, then it’s all good and he’s through to the next stage. Right now the important part is: will he [Elahi] get the vote of confidence? If the PTI is serious about its dissolution plans then it will definitely try to get him the votes.

“If, however, CM Elahi does not get the vote of confidence then he ceases to be the chief minister. In this case, then the governor can ask anyone from the Punjab Assembly to try and take a vote of confidence to become the chief minister. The PTI and PML-Q can come up with a new candidate for CM if they can get him/her the magic number of 186. The PML-Q can also side with the PML-N and these two parties can come up with their own candidate. Mind you, even in this instance, Pervaiz Elahi too can become the joint N-Q candidate; there is no bar on him from becoming a candidate for CM again -- if he gets a vote of confidence.

“Now, once this vote of confidence notice is issued, there is a time limit on this. It must be acted on ‘not before three days and not after seven days’. So under Article 112, any CM who has been asked to go for a vote of confidence cannot send a summary to the governor. With the governor’s move today, the December 23 matter has for now been deferred -- the vote of confidence has to be voted on within the time limit set though...”.

PILDAT President Ahmad Bilal Mehboob, in a tweet, has noted that under Rule 22 of Punjab Assembly Rules of Procedure, which deals with the vote of confidence for chief minister, the working of “sub-rule 7 is interesting; it says that if [the] CM refrains from obtaining vote of confidence from the assembly, it shall be deemed that he doesn t command confidence!”.

However, lawyer Abuzar Salman Khan Niazi disagrees with the governor’s act in itself. In a tweet, Niazi says that: the “governor has acted unconstitutionally. Power of governor under Article 130(7) requiring CM to take [a] vote of confidence can’t be exercised arbitrarily [and] in vacuum. He has to be satisfied [the] CM has lost majority. [S]ome concrete material must exist before him, establishing CM lacks majority”. Niazi further asks how the governor “was able to form the opinion that CM has lost [the] confidence of the majority? Some concrete material must exist to form such [an] opinion. In [the] absence of material showing loss of confidence of majority by the CM, requiring [the] CM to take a vote of confidence is patently unconstitutional”.