Study reveals China's lung cancer deaths to hit 760,000

China's lung cancer death rate is falling. Its total death count isn't. That contradiction sits at the centre of a new study published in Cancer Biology & Medicine by researchers at China's National Cancer Center, the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, and Peking Union Medical College, who project annual deaths will reach 760,200 by 2030, a 16.6% jump from 2022.

From 2013 to 2021, it is noted that the crude mortality rate of lung cancer in China increased by 2.3% per year.

However, the data, after being adjusted for the ageing of the population, become different; specifically, the age-standardised mortality rate was stable throughout the period, with a decrease of 2.9% after 2015.

This research is carried out by Xin Liang and Xiaoqiu Dai based on data from 605 surveillance sites with 2.37 billion person-years of data in total.

By conducting a decomposition analysis, the researchers were able to identify the reasons for the rise in the number of deaths. Ageing and population growth contributed to an increase in the number of deaths by 32% to 43% and 8% to 31%, respectively, while the rest contributed to a decrease of 3% to 29%.

Urban areas saw the steepest Autonomous Sensory Meridian Response (ASMR) declines, at 2.9% annually, followed by eastern regions at 1.5%. Rural areas lagged furthest behind, even as the average age at death climbed fastest there; men gained roughly 0.27 years annually and women 0.30 years, reflecting both an ageing population and slower access to earlier detection.

Liang's and Dai's team are calling for tobacco control efforts to be concentrated in rural and western provinces, where 2018 data already showed 26.6% of Chinese adults smoking and 68.1% of non-smokers exposed to secondhand smoke.

They're also pushing to expand low-dose CT screening beyond major hospitals into grassroots clinics, potentially using mobile units and AI-assisted image reading to cut down on false positives.