SpaceX ‘Space Junk’ is on a collision course with the Moon, scientists say

A discarded Falcon 9 rocket stage is projected to slam into the lunar surface this August, creating a fresh crater and highlighting the issue of deep-space junk, according to a new report. 

The report is authored by Bill Gray of Project Pluto, a software program that tracks near-Earth objects. He predicts that the impact will occur on August 5, 2026, at approximately 2:44 a.m. EDT. 

The debris is expected to strike the western limb of the Moon, specifically near the Einstein crater. The object designated 2025-010D, is a 45-foot-tall upper stage of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket traveling at roughly 5,400 mph.

Going back in history, the rocket stage was launched on January 15, 2025, carrying two private lunar missions. Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost Mission 1 and ispace’s RESILIENCE. 

The blue ghost successfully soft-landed on March 2, 2025, becoming the first commercial mission to succeed on its first attempt. Conversely, RESILIENCE failed its landing attempt and crashed on June 4, 2025.

The discarded upper stage has been in a chaotic, 26-day elliptical orbit around Earth for over a year, eventually drifting into the Moon’s gravitational pull. 

The European Space Agency currently tracks about 35,000 objects in orbit, emphasizing the increasing density of human-made clutter in the Earth-Moon system. While this impact poses no threat to Earth, the accumulation of debris could become a risk as NASA’s Artemis program establishes a permanent presence on the Moon. 

NASA recently celebrated the successful Artemis II crewed flyby in April 2026. Future missions, including the Artemis IV lunar landing will rely heavily on hardware developed by private partners like SpaceX and Blue Origin. 

Since the impact will occur on the lunar limb during a waning phase, astronomers believe the crash will likely be too faint to observe directly with Earth-based telescopes.