Wall Street starts questioning Microsoft’s big bet on OpenAI

OpenAI has become a source of concern for Microsoft investors, signalling a shift in how Wall Street views the AI boom. During Microsoft’s latest earnings call, analysts raised doubts about how much the company is relying on OpenAI for future growth, questioning whether the partnership will deliver the returns many have assumed. The moment marked a clear change in sentiment around artificial intelligence leaders and their biggest backers.

Microsoft investors flag OpenAI exposure

On the earnings call, Jefferies analyst Brent Thill highlighted that OpenAI accounts for about 45% of Microsoft’s backlog of future sales. He warned of growing concern about the durability of that exposure, comparing it to risks investors associate with economic shocks.

Microsoft Chief Financial Officer Amy Hood defended the partnership, calling OpenAI a great collaborator that has helped keep Microsoft at the forefront of app innovation and AI development.

However, the reassurance failed to calm markets. The following day, Microsoft shares fell sharply, wiping out $357 billion in market value despite otherwise strong financial results.

The reaction echoes earlier market swings tied to AI expectations. Oracle shares surged last year after OpenAI committed to spending $300 billion on computing power, only to fall back as investors questioned whether the deal would translate into profitable business. Oracle has since announced plans to raise up to $50 billion to fund further data centre expansion.

These sharp moves suggest investors are rethinking which companies truly benefit from artificial intelligence, which may be disrupted by it, and whether OpenAI can generate the massive revenues its partners expect.

Thill said sentiment has clearly shifted, with investors now asking whether OpenAI, led by CEO Sam Altman, will deliver on its promises or begin competing directly with its partners.