Finance ministry anticipates inflation easing to 5.6-6.5% in Dec

In its monthly economic report, the Ministry of Finance has anticipated that the inflation rate would ease to around 5.8%-6.8% in November and then further to 5.6%-6.5% in December.

“Inflation is expected ... [to] further recede to 5.6% - 6.5% by December 2024,” said the Finance Division in its Monthly Economic Update and Outlook.

The central bank slashed interest rates by 250 basis points earlier in November in a bid to revive a sluggish economy amid a big drop in the rate of inflation.

According to Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data, inflation sharply dropped to 7.2% in October from a multi-decade high of nearly 40% in May 2023, while it was slightly higher than 6.9% in September 2024.

“On the agriculture front, wheat crop sowing is in progress to achieve the targeted area and production. The government facilitations are well intact regarding the timely provision of key inputs to the farmers at reasonable prices,” according to the report.

It said the large-scale manufacturing (LSM) sector seems to be struggling to rebound.

Although year-on-year growth remained negative, the month-on-month performance showed signs of resilience, with gradual production increases in key sectors such as textile and automobiles.

The finance division said it was adamant about extending its policy support to the sector, adding that external stability would prove a springboard for sustained improvement, hinting at a cautiously optimistic outlook for progressive recovery.

The report also highlighted that the current account posted a surplus during the first four months of FY2025, strengthening the external sector.

“For the outlook, it is anticipated that exports, imports, and worker’s remittances will continue to observe their increasing trend - exports will remain within a range of $2.5-3.0 billion, imports $4.5-4.9 billion, and worker’s remittances $2.8-3.3 billion in November 2024,” according to the monthly economic outlook.