The perils of democracy in a by-election

The by-election in NA-122 may become instrumental in a re-launch of ‘Go Nawaz Go’, if Imran Khan’s candidate wins. And it may further reinforce the Sharif model of exclusivist rule if Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s three-time winner loses this time. In both cases, it seems, a fragile democracy may lose a bit more to the advantage of the powers that be who had gained most in the aftermath of the last aborted attempt by the Qadri-Khan duo at the centre of the capital to dislodge the Sharif government.
Indeed, the by-election in NA-122 should have been a peripheral issue after over two and a half years of the general elections. But this is not to be in this too uncertain democracy-in-transition. The stakes in one by-poll have become so high, at least at the psychological and political levels, that it has become a make or break situation for both Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his main challenger, PTI Chairman Imran Khan.
Since Ayaz Sadiq’s margin of victory last time was as low as less than 10,000 votes, coming down more than three fold since 2008, a small swing in favour of the PTI’s Aleem Khan, a much stronger election contestant at the grassroots level than Imran Khan whose active participation this time may tilt the scales against the defender. This is a contest between competing shades of right-wing conservative politics on the basis of excessive use of administrative muscle by the ruling PML-N, on the one hand, and infinite money, by the PTI candidate, on the other, with a liberal PPP sitting on the sidelines of the ring with a leadership in political self-exile.
This is the second biggest challenge to the House of Sharif and the current political dispensation after the over 120-day sit-in in the red-zone of the capital fizzled out due to a lack of resolution of the powers that be due to the intransigence of a benevolent COAS. Although the sit-in by the two plebeian cousins not only busted their putsch, it, however, substantially weakened the chief executive – who was saved by an alliance of almost all parties in parliament. That alliance to save democracy has now broken down, thanks to the unleashing of forces beyond the federal and provincial civilian control.
The challenge this time has shifted to the Sharifs’ bastion of power, Lahore, where the demographic urban majority of the youth is ready to give their hero, the Kaptaan, another chance to fight those they detest, the politicos of the old regime, despite their failed attempts at wooing them through promised youth loans and laptop lollipops.
After losing the moral edge on the conspiratorial allegation of systemic rigging in the last general elections at the hands of none other than the Judicial Commission that the PTI had pinned all its hopes on, Khan seemed to have lost the high tide of his popularity as witnessed in the unceremonious defeat of the PTI in the Haripur by-election. Suddenly, three favourable judgements out of the four alleged controversial NA constituencies that the PTI chief had been demanding be opened for scrutiny to establish electoral fraud gave a great impetus to the falling political fortunes of our most desperate Khan – not ready to wait for the remaining two and a half years of the tenure of the current representative dispensation.
In fact, a charged public meeting at the Doongi Ground of Samanabad – the PA-148 constituency that the PTI had won in the last elections and in which the PTI NA candidate seemed to be lagging behind now – has raised the rating of Aleem Khan, who seems to have gained edge over his rival in the other PA-147 segment that was won by the PML-N in the last elections.
As compared to a gentleman like Sardar Ayaz Sadiq of the PML-N, who rarely visited his constituents in the last seven years, the not-so-well-reputed Aleem Khan has been quite active in the constituency that he had once won under Gen Musharraf’s tutelage. As alleged by the most educated and clean candidate of the PPP, Barrister Amir Hassan, both main contenders can be disqualified by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) on reasons of extreme over-spending. But Khan has put the ECP under such tremendous pressure that it has been conceding all his demands. Though that gives some psychological boost to the PTI, it may also cancel out all possible excuses that Khan may resort to in the event of a defeat.
On the other hand, it seems that the PML-N has lost its wits in a re-election on a seat that it had won against apparently an invincible Imran Khan last time. Its ministers defied the code of ethics in trying to put on a brave face in front of Imran Khan’s big rally, but had to cut a sorry finger in front of a small gathering put together by local and provincial administration. As opposed to Imran Khan, who touched on major issues of mis-governance and misplaced development priorities, and Aleem Khan, who raised very pertinent local issues, the PML-N ministers and Sardar Ayaz Sadiq focused on the persona of Imran Khan and his impatience to become PM by hook or by crook.
The NA-122 by-election provides an exceptionally dangerous possibility: if the PML-N loses a seat in Lahore that it is defending, it may turn out to be a midterm mini-referendum on its prospects in power and politics, and provide yet another chance to a desperate Khan to launch yet another destabilising campaign to push for early elections.
The PML-N defeat may further weaken the prime minister’s position in the power structure, but Khan may also not be the winner in the end. If he wins he may go an extra mile to destabilise the political setup, and may not likely be the beneficiary in the end. If he loses it will frustrate his impatient young followers who may not wait for too long for the change that Khan promises. That will give an incorrigible PML-N, not ready to change a personalised oligarchic style of governance, a free hand in Punjab in the absence of the once vibrant PPP. In both eventualities, a democracy in transition may be the worst sufferer once again if the politicians don’t conduct themselves well – and with sense.
The writer is a political analyst.
Email: imtiaz.safma@gmail.com
Twitter: @ImtiazAlamSAFMA