High noon in Punjab

Just when Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi and the PTI probably thought things couldn’t possibly change against their political fortunes, Punjab’s political drama threw yet another twist. Friday’s CM run-off election should in theory have been a walk in the parliamentary park for the PTI candidate. But a combination of some classic art of politicking – by most estimations said to be coordinated by Asif Ali Zardari – and some good old-fashioned political family internal frictions led Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain to turn the tables on his cousin and PTI’s CM candidate Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi. As the head of the party, Chaudhry Shujaat directed PML-Q members not to vote for the PTI candidate in the CM election. After a nail-biting few hours to the vote, in which all 10 PML-Q members did indeed cast their vote, the final clincher came from Deputy Speaker Dost Mazari who rejected the votes in light of Chaudhry Shujaat’s letter and the Supreme Court’s short order in May about Article 63A, the party head is empowered to take this decision. The PTI has decided to challenge this ruling by Deputy Speaker Mazari in the Supreme Court, while Hamza Shehbaz is set to take oath as CM Punjab – a second time round.

It should not be forgotten that the PTI had gone to the Supreme Court with a presidential reference filed by President Arif Alvi in May this year seeking the interpretation of Article 63A, after which the SC had decided that votes of dissident members of parliament would not be counted. The short order by the Supreme Court in this regard was criticized back then as a rewriting of constitution, with legal experts arguing that Article 63A as per the 18th Amendment balanced the power of the party head and also made sure that the individual right of voting was sustained, while a penalty was attached. The penalty still stays but the individual right was taken away. The short order was hailed by the PTI back then, but the reaction has been quite different this time around. Will Article 63A be reinterpreted yet again? Or will the SC uphold Mazari’s ruling?

Looking at the run-off election from a purely political angle, the PTI and its candidate had the votes. But politics the past few months has been led by ‘technicalities’ and this time the PML-N and allies like Zardari seemed to have taken the technicality route. Some observers are of the view that since there were no defections, it does not play into the ‘lota’ narrative while others think that using this technicality is a violation of the people’s mandate and against democratic principles. As expected, Imran Khan has come out guns blazing against what transpired in the Punjab Assembly, asking for peaceful protests and looking to the Supreme Court to remedy what he says is a theft of mandate.

For now, Punjab awaits a government that is not edged precariously on the verge of losing power after court cases. The province has not in recent history at least seen such chaos or instability. Punjab has been held for a very long time by the PML-N – and it is an extremely significant territory given that the party which holds the Punjab is essentially also the party which most frequently holds the centre. The current brand of politics – while understandable in a real-politik sense – can hardly be good for our economy, politics, future, or the state of our fragile democracy. An ideal situation would see all parties sitting together at a time when the country is teetering dangerously close to an economic blackhole. That will not happen. And, with no certainty in Punjab, we can be quite sure of no certainty in the centre either. Meanwhile, politics will continue to be contested not in parliament but in courtrooms.