Pak-China relations and USA

Pakistan-China relationship is anchored on the principles of mutual respects, win-win cooperation and acknowledgement of each other’s concerns and interests. It is not rhetoric but a time-tested fact. China and Pakistan have always proved themselves dependable friends. There are many distinguish characteristics which make China-Pakistan relationship unique in comparison with the West. Western countries tried to build cooperation by adopting policy of dependency and used technology and market power to achieve the goal.

On the contrary, China always assisted Pakistan in achieving the goal of self-sufficiency. China abetted Pakistan to learn the art of fishing. China extended cooperation to build the Ordnance Factory, Heavy Mechanical Complex Taxila (HMCT), Aeronautical Complex and Heavy Forge Factory, Al-Khalid Tank and JF-17s etc. The HMCT facilitated Pakistan to build production base for quality weaponry. Civil nuclear cooperation is another hallmark. On the economic side, CPEC is a sign of ultimate trust and friendship. It started at a time when no one was willing to invest in Pakistan. The CPEC is helping Pakistan build industrial base and revolutionise economy. Ingredients of fourth industrial revolution make it a perfect venture.

The strong bond of friendship, rather brotherhood, always helped steer the relationship in a smooth manner. Unfortunately, it also attracted negative propaganda and CPEC is the latest victim. Without realising the importance of CPEC for Pakistan, the West, especially US is pressurising Pakistan to come out of this cooperation.

The US considers it a strategic initiative, which has no rational or evidence. It is economic initiative, which is contributing to revive economy. Pakistan’s commitment to CPEC has antagonised the US and its allies like India. They have initiated smear campaigns against both countries and are busy to spread fake information about the CPEC and Xinjiang.

The analysis of facts and global politics indicates that there is nothing wrong with the CPEC, Xinjiang or Pakistan-China relationship. The real problem is unprecedented growth and development of China and fears of US. The US wants to contain China and is busy to convince countries to limit working with China. Pakistan being brother of China is the prime target. Pakistan has refused to listen to this demand of US.

Howbeit, the situation is becoming more complicated and smear campaign has been further accelerated. The US has forged strong strategic and economic relationship with India in the region to counter China and Pakistan. Through this strategic partnership, the US is trying to further pressurise China and Pakistan. It is expected that the efforts will be enhanced in the coming months and years. Global institution will also be deputed to achieve the objective. It has been rather deputed like FATF, IMF etc.

In this context, neutrality will not be an option and circumstances will compel Pakistan to make a decision, which must protect interests of Pakistan and brotherhood with China.

In the light of facts and global politics, it is crystal clear that US will not be happy with Pakistan. The reasons behind this assumption are quite clear. First, the US has launched Build Back Better World (B3W) in collaboration with its allies. B3W is pitched as alternative to BRI. The US is asking Pakistan to join the initiative and leave the BRI and CPEC. It is impossible, as Pakistan cannot leave the BRI. Pakistan will be happy to join B3W but without compromising on CPEC, BRI and brotherhood with China. The US and allies will not accept it.

Second, let’s assume for a moment. If Pakistan abandons CPEC and China will US stand with Pakistan? No, US will stand with India, no matter what’s Pakistan does. The assumption has been developed on the basis of strong economic rational.

The US needs India due to the size of its market to compete with China. China is an economy of 1.4 billion consumers. China has a potential to graduate around 600 million people into middle class through Vision 2035.

A study by HSBC advocated that the process has been started and China will graduate 160 million till 2025 and the middle class will be comprised of 500 million people. It is anticipated that through Vision 2035 300-400 million will graduate to upper class.

So, 1000 million people will be changing their class, which will give enormous boost to China’s GDP and economy. Experts have pointed out that an increase of $20 in spending of middle class will generate consumption economy of $1.1 trillion in China on per year basis. Thus, it is predicted that domestic economy would be enough for China to sustain the high growth rate and counter the global challenges. Further, the enhanced consumption will also help China become centre of gravity by enhancing imports to meet the rising demand of people.

On the other hand, US market only consists of 334 million people, which has no match with China. The US would be in need to look for international markets to compensate this difference. Europe, which is a traditional ally of US, will not be able to offer such market. Europe has population of 780 million and is a saturated market. Europe itself is looking for new avenues of investment and economic cooperation.

Lastly, in the past, US utilised its power of innovation and technological development to outpace other countries. However, this time China is outpacing US.

In this context, India is a natural and essential choice for US and America will try to build relationship with India. It is happening already in the form of QUAD, 2+2 partnership etc. It is expected that the relationship will be further strengthened. Pakistan will not have any space in this relationship until it abandons CPEC and relationship with China, which is not possible.

Thus, on the basis of above discussion, it can be inferred that China and Pakistan need to work more closely otherwise, US and Indian alliance will pose serious threats to peace, security of region and interests of both the countries.

Lastly, Pakistan should realise that neutrality will not serve the interest of Pakistan. So, Pakistan should refine its policy of international relations by keeping in mind this key observation.