Race for capital’s Senate seat: Gilani’s entry throws up equal risks to both sides

Situationer

By Tariq Butt

ISLAMABAD: Former prime minister Yusuf Raza Gilani, who has been fielded by the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) as its joint candidate for a federal capital seat in the Senate, faces a big challenge to muster nearly a dozen-and-a-half additional votes to defeat the ruling coalition’s representative.

If the Members of the National Assembly (MNAs) vote strictly according to the party line, Gilani is obviously going to lose. However, the margin of victory for the governing alliance’s nominee is unlikely to be huge due to the electoral college numbers.

The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and its allies have an edge of some 15 votes over the PDM’s tally, according to the numerical strength of the two sides. The PTI has 156 votes, the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) has five MNAs, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P) has seven MNAs, the Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA) has three, the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) has five MNAs and Sheikh Rashid Ahmed’s party has one. They will be supported by an independent MP, Aslam Bhootani from Balochistan. All these members put together come to 179.

On the other side, the PML-Nawaz has 83 votes, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) has 54 MNAs, the Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) or Mutahidda Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) has 15 MNAs, the Balochistan National Party-Mengal (BNP-M) has 4 votes and the Awami National Party (ANP) has one MNA. Three independents, including Mohsin Dawar, Ali Wazir and Ali Nawaz Shah, are likely to back the PDM candidate. Thus, Gillani’s total support comes to 160 members.

Two by-elections are going to be held soon on NA-75 Sialkot and NA-45 Kurram Agency and those elected would be eligible to cast their votes in the Senate polls. If the two competing sides manage to share these seats, the difference between their respective numerical positions will not change. If any MNA belonging to either side stays away from voting for any reason, their abstention will obviously benefit their rival. The two main contestants will ensure that all their eligible members participate in the exercise.

The PDM has put up Gilani in the hope that he will be able to nibble away at some votes from the ruling coalition, which, it believes, is facing a difficult time. Gilani cherishes an upset in his favour and wants to cash in on his clout, which, he claims, was earned because he was a prime minister who used to accommodate people rather than annoying them.

On the contrary, the ruling coalition expects to snatch some votes of the PDM component parties. The ruling group believes the opposition is in dire straits because of the disenchantment prevailing among certain of its MNAs over the opposition alliance’s policies. However, the fate of the claims of both sides will be known on March 3 when polling for the Senate elections will be held.

Gilani’s candidacy poses equal risks to the PTI coalition and the PDM. If the governing alliance is able to maintain its strength in the upper house of parliament, it would feel buoyed and could argue that the coalition stands united. If it succeeds in gaining some PDM votes, its confidence will rise tremendously. But if it loses any votes, it will face a huge amount of embarrassment.

Likewise, if the PDM succeeds in winning all the votes of its component parties, it would claim that its support is intact and its legislators stand with it wholeheartedly. If it manages to get some votes from the ruling coalition, its confidence will skyrocket and help boost its anti-government campaign. However, if any of its voters slip away, it will be in a deep trouble and its movement will receive a severe jolt.