Counting the numbers

While there have been some rifts off and on in the PDM alliance formed by the opposition parties, these seem to have increased. The PML-N is still talking about a long march to Islamabad and a resignation of its legislators from the assemblies, alongside the JUI-F, which is also putting out the same strategy. However, somewhat curiously, the PPP has different ideas. Bilawal Bhutto has said that the prime minister should be changed through a no-confidence vote within parliament. While this may be on paper a more 'democratic' way to alter an elected government, the question is that of numbers. The PPP on its own has around 50 MNAs in the National Assembly, well short of the number 170 needed to remove a prime minister from office. And then there are also previous examples.

When Asif Ali Zardari and his allies said that the chairmanship of Sadiq Sanjrani in the Senate would be altered and an opposition candidate put in his place, despite the larger number of senators loyal to the opposition, this move fell through completely. We ask then how precisely the opposition, and notably the PPP, plans to go ahead with this plan. Is there something else afoot that is not yet visible? Such things have happened before in Pakistan. But it is also true that no prime minister in our history has been removed through a no-confidence move in parliament.

Meanwhile, it is welcome to see some attempts by the opposition and the government to meet and reach an agreement, which would end the present rift in the political elite in the country and bring it closer together. The parties have agreed to meet with the government delegation in Islamabad and what emerges from this meeting is yet to be seen. But we have a situation which is now increasingly difficult to decipher. Parties other than the PPP also admit they are somewhat mystified by Bilawal and Zardari's claims of being able to bring a no-confidence move and wish to proceed with their own plans. Where all this will take us is extremely difficult to predict. At the moment we should hope that the parties can reach some sort of consensus on how to work together, how the opposition can play a bigger part in governance and to get the work for the good of the people, all the parties and their elected representatives serve. This would mean primarily lowering inflation and bringing down the price hike that has crippled so many people across the country. While many would agree with the opposition view that the current PTI setup is incompetent, it should also tell us what plans it has for the future and what it would do if power was handed over to it. Till then, we wait and see, as talks begin at one end, leaders of different opposition parties give different statements and there is a distinct difference in the strategy that leaders believe should be pursued.