Afghanistan’s future

Despite the peace deal signed last month in Doha between the US and the Taliban, things continue to look grim for Afghanistan. While President Ashraf Ghani has signed a decree agreeing to release 1,500 Taliban prisoners as demanded by the militant organization, and the Taliban have begun preparations to collect them from jails while releasing almost 1,000 Afghan security personnel in exchange, there is much disquiet. A US troop pullout has begun, and the US plans to remove at least 8,000 of its 13,000 or so troops posted in the country. This could bring disaster for a country where the security apparatus is not strong enough to hold up against a strong challenge from the Taliban who control most of the country. A senior US military officer has already said in Congress even as US troops leave that the Taliban are not sticking to their bargain.

There are other challenges. Abdullah Abdullah, who had challenged Ashraf Ghani in the election held in September last year, and disputed the results that were in favour of Ghani announced recently, has held his own parallel swearing-in ceremony at an event in Kabul. Ghani has also been sworn in. The challenge from Abdullah Abdullah could complicate matters, and while the US has made it clear it stands with Ghani, there are powerful Afghan elements that back Abdullah, who was the CEO in the last National Unity government which ruled Afghanistan.

The country is essentially in chaos. Even though the US may be reluctant to admit this, its exit has not been a graceful or even a very useful one. It resembles those in the past when it left countries in a lurch to suit its own interests. What happens in Afghanistan will also be of immense relevance to Pakistan, which has already called on all parties to do everything they can for a lasting peace. Even before it begins, many doubt if this peace can hold and if so for how long. A new crisis may be just about to begin and this puts a huge number of people in peril, mainly in Afghanistan but also in the region. How things will progress from here remains to be seen but at the present time there is a complete lack of clarity and too many rifts to be dealt with by any element within the country.