Korea’s path to peace

Less than a week before North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is scheduled to hold a historic meeting with South Korean President Moon Jae-in at the DMZ, he has given an unexpected boost to the peace process by announcing that his country will no longer carry out missile tests and will shut down an atomic test site in the northern part of the country. Since it is Kim’s provocative missile tests that sparked the current crisis in the region, ending them – even if temporarily – will help create the necessary conditions for peace. US President Donald Trump, as is his wont, managed to even exaggerate what is a genuine breakthrough when he tweeted that Kim has agreed to denuclearise when in fact what he has claimed is that he is ending testing because North Korea has developed its weaponry to such an extent that no more testing is needed. Most observers, however, believe that North Korea exaggerates the efficacy of its weapons. It should also be noted that North Korea has in the past agreed in the past to halt its nuclear programme only to later admit that it continued to develop it clandestinely. Nonetheless, this announcement represents a real breakthrough. North Korea has shown it may be ready for a diplomatic solution, starting with Kim’s offer of direct talks with US President Donald Trump and then with the show of unity from the two Koreas at the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang.

The one wild card in all of these is Trump. He has previously reacted to Kim’s nuclear sabre-rattling by tweeting about the size of his nuclear button and his new National Security Adviser John Bolton has long been an advocate of war with North Korea. But there is also some cause for hope. Over the Easter weekend, then-CIA director and incoming Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met with Kim in preparation for talks between Trump and Kim. At the meeting Kim is reported to have offered the release of three American citizens currently being detained in North Korea while South Korean President Moon has claimed that North Korea is willing to drop its long-held demand that the US withdraw its troops from South Korea. Where the US will have to be ready for compromise is in loosening, or even dropping altogether, sanctions on the North Koreans in return for halting its nuclear programme. The US should also tone down its frequently apocalyptic rhetoric. At times, Trump has been so bellicose that it seems as if he is inviting a nuclear showdown. Now, with relative normalisation of relations between North and South Korea in sight, the US needs to ensure it does not put up any roadblocks on the path to peace.