Battle for Mosul

The end of the so-called Islamic State (Isis) caliphate in Iraq is nigh. Iraqi troops gained another symbolic victory in the city of Mosul last week and Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared the end of ‘the Daesh state of falsehood.’ The truth is a little more somber. The Iraqi victory against Isis may have been secured for now, but it was the solemn ruins of the 850-year-old Grand al-Nuri Mosque that captured the true cost of the almost 14 years of civil war in Iraq. The end of the Isis caliphate, which was declared from the pulpit of the al-Nuri Mosque three years ago, does not mean that peace will return to Iraq. At least 20,000 people are still feared to be living under Isis control inside Mosul. Tensions between civilians and Iraqi troops in Mosul have also increased; mistrust of the Iraqi army is seen as one of the chief reasons why the city remained under Isis control for so long. Like Afghanistan, which has been crippled by internal fighting after the US intervention, there is little chance that peace will return to Iraq anytime soon. The Iraqi people have paid a steep cost for American interventionism. The country and its rich heritage lies in ruins. This is not to discount the powerful victory that has been secured in Mosul. It has taken eight months of urban warfare to take it back from the control of Isis. But taking back physical control is the easier part.

The US invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan failed to win ‘hearts and minds.’ The Iraqi government will have to succeed where the US could not. It may be difficult to accept, but the end of the so-called caliphate will not bring the end of terrorism in Iraq. It may not even mark the end of Isis presence in the country. Taking back lost territories has not been an easy task. Three years is far too long a time for a terrorist group to be allowed to control one-third of the country. And the victory declaration itself may have come too early. Territories in west and south Mosul still remain under Isis control. But the group is now taking a beating in both Syria and Iraq. In Syria, it is the Isis-stronghold of Raqqa that is close to falling. Isis controlled territory is sixty percent down from its peak two years ago. Its revenue streams have been cut by around 80 percent. It is these that are the most significant victories. The deaths of thousands of civilians in the fighting could cause further trouble, with reports of human rights abuses in the battle for Mosul rife. War is never pretty, but this was a war that was aimed at winning back the people of Iraq. Mosul may be back under Iraqi control but until peace returns, this is a battle that has not yet been won. To do that the Iraqi government will have to win back the people.