Can Sharif survive Panama?

Suspense of Panama is yet not over, and may prolong for a week or so more, but the long legal battle would certainly change the political scenario prior to the next elections. Can Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif survive, perhaps, the last controversy before the next polls?

Sharif is nearly 17 years senior to Imran Khan in politics, but both know each other from their early days in cricket. Politics has neither been the first choice for Sharif nor Imran. Today, they are not only the centre figures in politics but also archrivals as, for the second time since 2013, the main contest would be between the two for the top slot. However, it depends a lot on the outcome of Panama leaks case.

Both have their merits and demerits and both are hopeful that the long legal battle of Panama in the Supreme Court would give them edge over each other. The two also know that it’s a battle for their political survival. If Imran loses, it will be his third consecutive defeat after 2013 elections and the judicial commission. But for Sharif, not only his politics is at stake but also of his immediate family’s prestige.

In the post-Panama politics, Sharif's biggest mistake was his back-to-back speeches over the issue while Imran committed the blunder by giving another sit-in call. All eyes are now on the Supreme Court, and suspense will remain till the judgement is announced.

Nawaz and his brother Shahbaz Sharif opted for politics on the advice of his father Mian Muhammad Sharif, who was a businessman and even he had no interest in politics. Though he kept himself away from politics, on the advice of some of cabinet members of the late General Ziaul Haq, he decided to send his two children to politics. Zia's lobby used anti-Bhutto sentiments link to nationalisation, which had also affected Sharif's business, to convince elder Sharif to become a political force.

Imran, on the other hand, also admitted that had Benazir Bhutto's first government not created problems in establishment of Shaukat Khanum Cancer Hospital, he would have never entered politics. He joined politics in 1996 when a group of his old friends launched the ‘Insaf party’ from his residence at Zaman Park Lahore.

However, former ISI chief, the late General Hameed Gul, once told this writer that Imran was on top of his list of some 100 notables whom he wanted to join politics and form a neutral party. Once when this writer asked Imran about it, he said, "Yes, Gul wanted me to be part of his political game plan, but I could not go along with him because of differences over style of politics and programme."

If business helped Sharifs in politics to keep the ball rolling and learn tactics how to control politics by consolidating his position in the biggest province, Punjab, cricket helped Imran in two ways: how to handle pressure as well as how to exert pressure on the opponents, even if you are on verge of defeat.

Imran staged a comeback after back-to-back setbacks. He faced the first defeat in 2013 elections, though he had predicted a landslide victory for his party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). The second was when after 126 days’ sit-in for a judicial commission to probe 2013 election rigging, the commission rejected his plea.

But, cricketing experience helped him and he kept his workers’ moral high. He was looking for an opportunity and was lucky that Panama leaks hit the headlines. As the names of Sharif's children appeared in the leaks, he picked it up and created hype against Sharifs, both on the streets and in the media. He also moved the Supreme Court against the Sharifs, though names of 600 other Pakistanis had also been published by the Panama Papers.

In 1992 World Cup, Pakistan had no chance of even reaching the semi-finals, but a half point sent them to the semis and Imran then never looked back. Without any doubt, it’s a make-or-break situation for Imran's future political discourse. Defeat in Panama could minimise his chances in the next general elections.

It’s also a make-or-break situation for Sharifs. In his political career, Nawaz Sharif had seen many ups and downs. Circumstances and experience had made him a strong politician. Despite being an alleged product of the establishment, who had been used against the PPP and the late Benazir Bhutto in the days of Islami Jamhoori Ittehad (IJI) in 1988, he formed the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz. Historically, the PML-N had been a party of the establishment, but it emerged as an anti-establishment party after October 12, 1999 and later on when he signed the Charter of Democracy with Benazir Bhutto.

However, Bhuttos had been unlucky as, after the execution of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, his daughter, young Benazir Bhutto, faced double challenges of direct pressure from the establishment as well as the opposition, led by the Sharif, who was backed by the establishment. Thus, her both governments fell victim to circumstances.

In the presence of Sharifs and BB, Imran emerged as the third force. He used the tag of corruption against both but, in the process, he also supported General (retd) Pervez Musharraf's government from 1999 to 2003. He thought that disqualification of Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto would make room for him, but Musharraf had other ideas and he only wanted Imran as a junior partner. He created split in the PPP and the PML-N for a coalition government through the PPP-Patriot and the PML-Q.

Thus, Imran remained the lone voice as he was the only elected MNA of the PTI. His charisma among the youth and cricket-lovers with a clean reputation attracted the new breed of voters, mostly youth and families.

Another issue which gave him popularity was his stance against the military operation, which only changed after 2014 massacre of the Army Public School children.

Although he was not part of Musharraf's regime after 2002 elections, in the absence of Sharifs and BB, who were in exile then, Imran’s party emerged as a possible alternative to the PPP and the PML-N. He got prominence during the lawyers’ movement, which was also supported by both the PPP and the PML, in the absence of Nawaz and BB, Imran got maximum coverage.

Sharif, being the leader of anti-Musharraf movement, got the centre stage while BB, being the charismatic leader, always had the capacity to take the country by storm as she did when she arrived in the country on Oct 18, 2007.

BB's assassination completely changed the dynamics of Pakistani politics and the PPP, though won, could not sweep the polls under Asif Ali Zardari.

Zardari's policy of reconciliation though enabled him to complete a term, it also provided Imran with an opportunity to exploit it as 'muq muqa' (secret deal) politics of Zardari-Sharif in Centre and Punjab. This move helped him and the October-2011 show at Minar-e-Pakistan by Imran Khan surprised many including the PML-N and the PPP.

As the PPP was rooted out in 2013 elections, particularly in Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Imran-led PTI filled the vacuum as main opposition party.

Sharif-led PML-N emerged as the single largest party in Centre and Punjab, but lost to PTI in KP. For the first time, the PTI was able to form a government in one province and act as the major opposition party in Punjab.

In the last three years of PML government, it is the PTI which has not allowed Sharifs to settle down. However, they have survived some major political crises. Panama is, perhaps, the last before the next general elections. Can they survive Panama, is a question, which would be answered in the next 10 to 15 days with the SC verdict.

The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang.

Twitter: @MszharAbbasGEO