French lawmakers brace for more turmoil as no-confidence vote looms

PARIS: French lawmakers will vote on Wednesday (today) on no-confidence motions which are all but certain to oust the fragile coalition of Michel Barnier, deepening the political crisis in the euro zone’s second-largest economy.

Barring a last-minute surprise, Barnier’s will be the first French government to be forced out by a no-confidence vote in more than 60 years, at a time when the country is struggling to tame a massive budget deficit.

The debate is due to start at 4 pm (1500 GMT), with voting expected about three hours later, parliament officials said. President Emmanuel Macron is set to return to France from a state visit to Saudi Arabia during the day.

The government’s collapse would leave a hole at the heart of Europe, with Germany also in election mode, weeks ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump re-entering the White House.

“If the government is censured, that will throw France and the French into an insufferable situation,” said Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau, adding that those backing the no-confidence motion were playing Russian roulette with its future.

Budget Minister Laurent Saint-Martin said bringing down the government and its budget plans would mean a larger deficit and more instability.

The risk premium investors demand to hold French government debt rather than German Bunds was close to its highest level in more than 12 years on Tuesday.

After weeks of tension, the political crisis came to a head when Barnier, who has been prime minister for barely three months, said he would try to ram the social security part of the budget through parliament without a vote after failing to win support from Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally.

Barnier’s entourage and Le Pen’s camp, who had been propping up the minority coalition, each blamed the other and said they had done all they could to reach a deal on the budget.

“Censuring the budget is for us the only way the constitution gives us to protect the French,” Le Pen told reporters as she arrived in parliament.

The left and the far right combined have enough votes to topple Barnier, and Le Pen has confirmed that her party would vote for a left-wing alliance’s no-confidence bill. The RN’s own no-confidence motion would not be backed by enough lawmakers.

Barnier, who is due to be interviewed on television news programmes at around 1920 GMT, earlier warned lawmakers that voting his government down “would make everything more difficult” for France.

His draft budget had sought to cut the fiscal deficit, which is projected to exceed 6 percent of national output this year, with 60 billion euros ($63 billion) in tax hikes and spending cuts. It sought to drag the deficit down to 5 percent next year, with ratings agencies keeping a close eye on progress.

If the no-confidence vote does go through, Macron could ask Barnier to stay on in a caretaker role as he seeks a new prime minister, which could well happen only next year.

As far as the budget is concerned, if parliament has not adopted it by Dec 20, the caretaker government could propose emergency legislation to roll over spending limits and tax provisions from this year. But that would mean that savings measures Barnier had planned would fall by the wayside.