Power generation falls 4 percent in February

KARACHI: Power generation in Pakistan went down by 4.1 percent year-on-year (YoY) in February on lower generation from furnace oil, coal, and gas, while an economic slowdown in the country also contributed in the decline, according to a brokerage report shared on Wednesday.

Electricity generation was recorded at 7,756 gigawatt hours (11,541 megawatts) during Feb'23, compared to 8,088 GWh (12,036MW) recorded in Feb’22.

“This decline in power generation is triggered by the overall decline in economic activity across the country,” Arif Habib Limited stated in its report.

Lower power generation YoY in February from furnace oil (-80pc), coal (-57pc), wind (-44pc), and gas (-7pc) had played a catalyst role, it added. Major contributors during Feb'23 were hydel (share: 26.5pc), nuclear (share: 24.3pc), RLNG (share: 18.9pc), coal (share: 14.1pc), gas (share: 11.0pc), FO (share: 1.4pc), bagasse (share: 1.3pc), wind (share: 1.2pc), and solar (share: 1.1pc).

China Power Hub Generation and Thar Energy Limited generated zero electricity during Feb’23 due to the coal import issues and transmission constraints on the back of the delay in the second transmission line between Thar and Matiari Converter Station.

Nuclear, solar, hydel, and, RLNG-based power generation increased by 86pc, 42pc, 39pc, and 19pc YoY, respectively. The rise in hydel-based generation was due to a 35 percent YoY increase from Water and Power Development Authority.

The rise in hydel-based generation was despite the zero generation from Tarbela 4th extension and Neelam Jhelum. The addition of Karot Hydro Power to the system also supported the increase in hydel-based generation.

“The increase in nuclear-based generation is witnessed due to the addition of KANUPP-3 to the system,” the report said.

During Feb’23, fuel cost for power generation decreased by 10.3 percent to an average of Rs8.01/KWh compared with an average cost of Rs8.94/KWh during Feb’22. A YoY decline during Feb’23, according to Arif Habib Limited, was led by 39 percent increase in hydel-based generation and 86 percent in the nuclear-based, a relatively cheaper source of power generation.

Coal-based power generation cost decreased by 4 percent YoY on an addition of local coal-based plants. Solar-based generation increased by 42 percent, while FO-based generation declined by 80 percent YoY, an expensive source of power generation.

In 8 months of the financial year 2023, power generation went down by 7 percent YoY to 84,840 GWh (14,547MW), compared to 91,281 GWh (15,652MW) during 8MFY22.

The decline in the generation was owed to lower generation from furnace oil (-51pc YoY), coal (-27pc YoY) and, RLNG (-20pc YoY), according to the brokerage.

Major contributors during 8MFY23 were hydel (share: 29.4pc), nuclear (share: 19.7pc), coal (share: 15.4pc), RLNG (share: 14.7pc), gas (share: 11.5pc), furnace oil (share: 4.4pc), wind (share: 2.8pc), solar (share: 0.7pc), and bagasse (share: 0.6pc).

Nuclear, solar, bagasse, wind, gas, and hydel-based power generation increased by 48pc, 34pc, 16pc, 4pc, 2pc, and 1pc YoY respectively. The rise in nuclear-based generation is witnessed due to the addition of KANUPP-3 to the system.

Hydel-based generation increased by 1 percent YoY during 8MFY23 due to the addition of Karot Hydro Power to the system and a 27 percent YoY increase in generation from Tarbela 4 th extension. However, Neelam Jhelum was unavailable for generation since Aug’22 due to a technical fault, the report stated.