Premature celebration?

To some in Pakistan, the swift victory of the Taliban across Afghanistan appears more like a significant gain. It is an outcome that for now has conclusively blocked strategic space for India to use Afghan soil for destabilising Pakistan.

Besides, the arrival of a government in Kabul with a closer control on Afghanistan marks the first time in years of an Afghan regime that can be held squarely accountable for happenings across most of its territory.

But this historic change just across the Durand Line is hardly cause for a long-awaited joy, as Pakistan continues to face multiple challenges of a considerable proportion. In brief, the moment for celebration in Islamabad may still be premature.

Though the western border alongside Afghanistan is relatively secure for now, the emphasis must remain on relative. Notwithstanding Pakistan’s success in battling terrorist outfits and constructing a solid fence facing Afghanistan, Islamabad’s Afghan challenge is still in place.

Future instability in Afghanistan can cause outcomes ranging from an outflow of refugees to out of control conflict which are the big unknowns with unpredictable consequences for Pakistan. The arrival of up to four million Afghan refugees in Pakistan since the 1980s has already stretched Pakistan’s resources well beyond reasonable limits. And more of the same will hardly help Pakistan deal with recurring questions tied to its own stability.

The return of the Taliban for a second tenure following their five-year rule in the 1990s once again poses a significant spill-over risk for Pakistan. For the moment, Pakistan has taken the best route in refusing to open its gates to large numbers of fresh Afghan refugees. But it's still early in the day as conditions remain potentially volatile across Afghanistan.

The Biden Administration’s decision to freeze billions of dollars of the Afghan central bank’s reserves parked in the US creates the danger of a fast paced pauperization of an already weak Afghan state. And the departure of US-led Western troops recently has quickly demolished an artificial bubble especially in Kabul where Western troops spent billions of dollars locally.

Though the Taliban have scored a series of military victories recently, their challenge in running a state at par with the needs of the 21st century may well set the pace for their future. This week’s news of a Taliban order to force all women in public to wear a ‘niqab’ (face veil) in addition to the ‘burqa’ will hardly help lift the credentials of Afghanistan’s new rulers across global capitals.

For Prime Minister Khan’s government and Pakistan’s establishment, there may be limits to steering events in Afghanistan under its new rulers. But the fallout from those events may well haunt Pakistan in the not-too-distant future.

It is essential for Islamabad’s ruling class to take a fresh stock of Pakistan’s internal dynamics, notably the matter of largely dysfunctional policing and local administrations across the country. More than three years after Prime Minister Khan stepped in to lead Pakistan towards an era of unprecedented change, the outlook seems increasingly like more of the same.

Beyond lip service – and indeed the promise of reforming Pakistan so far appears more like lip service – a bold new agenda for unprecedented reforms is waiting to be unleashed.

Meanwhile, on the economic front, Pakistan increasingly remains at risk of witnessing a recovery that dangerously mimics similar journeys undertaken in the past. With the current account increasingly stretched due to mounting imports in recent months and the rupee increasingly forced to devalue, the fallout for ordinary households may be inevitable.

It is a familiar journey undertaken in the past. Periods of visible prosperity driven by a fast-paced drive to spend on imported consumer goods have eventually been forced to reverse in Pakistan’s sorry economic history.

Unless the economy is placed on a sustainable road to recovery with bold reforms in areas like agriculture, the future of Pakistan’s mainstream population is unlikely to head for the better. In sharp contrast to expensive luxury goods, notably cars entering Pakistan’s markets, the popular lament over increasing prices of food items marks a powerful reminder of a long-term tragedy – the matter of rulers in Islamabad remaining detached from the painful lives across ordinary households.

The writer is an Islamabad-based journalist who writes on political and economic affairs.

Email: farhanbokhari@gmail.com