Water managers pin hope on good river flows for filling dams

LAHORE: Less than usual rainfalls have so far caused river flows to remain at the lower level, squeezing supplies for irrigation purposes across the country, it was learnt on Saturday.

Water flows in almost all major rivers were healthy from the first week of June up to the first week of the current month. However, monsoon rains, which used to hit country in the third week of June, have been scarce, dashing hopes of an above-average wet season.

In this backdrop, the fall in river flows for the last about 10 days and less-than-expected monsoon rains started to worry water managers, said an irrigation expert. In fact, low flow of river is witnessed due to very few monsoon showers, especially lack of rains in the catchment area of rivers, he said, while elaborating factors behind poor water levels.

As focus has been on fulfilling demand of standing crops, most of the flows are diverted to meet irrigation requirements. Currently, depletion of storage has been going on from Tarbela dam on Indus River, while impounding rate at Mangla dam on River Jhelum has been slowed to ensure ample releases downstream. Flows of all rivers are relatively lesser than earlier projections –certainly a cause of concern.

“Despite low flows and faltering monsoon, we are still hopeful of achieving maximum conservation levels of both the Mangla and Tarbela dams after meeting crops’ requirements,” a senior official said. “Our optimism is not based on assumptions or mere wishful thinking, rather it is based on projections of acceleration in snow-melt and above-average rains in the remaining months of ongoing kharif season.”

As per the mid-season outlook, no doubt there has been a dip in river flows lately coupled with almost dry monsoon as yet. However, the weatherman predicts above-average rainfall in the remaining months of monsoon up till mid-September.

“Thus, we have pinned hopes on good river flows for filling dams,” the official said. “We are not very much worried about filling of Tarbela dam to maximum level as it used to achieve two to five feet a day when flows are nearly 200,000 cusecs and there are lesser needs of irrigation in the country. Hence, greater flows of mighty Indus make it possible to even fill Tarbela dam from 1,450 feet to its full level of 1,550 feet in about 40 days.”

Presently, water level of Tarbela dam stands at 1,455 feet. The real problem is to keep Mangla dam to its highest-level of 1,242 feet. Water level of Mangla dam on July 18 was recorded at 1,226 feet.

“Good news is that there is no fresh restriction on filling criteria of Mangla dam,” said an official. “Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda) had earlier intimated Indus River System Authority to cap filling of Mangla dam to one foot a day after achieving level of 1,230 feet in the wake of last year’s major earthquake in the area.”

However, Wapda officials last week informed water regulatory body that there would be no restriction on filling of Mangla dam as per their new assessment.

Meanwhile, the position of the river inflows and outflows at Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma along with the reservoirs levels and the barrages registered on Saturday was as under: Rivers: Indus at Tarbela: Inflows 164,800 cusecs and Outflows 170,000 cusecs, Kabul at Nowshera: Inflows 49,400 cusecs and Outflows 49,400 cusecs, Jhelum at Mangla: Inflows 34,300 cusecs and Outflows 25,000 cusecs, Chenab at Marala: Inflows 62,800 cusecs and Outflows 29,600 cusecs. Barrages: Jinnah: Inflows 229,500 cusecs and Outflows 221,500 cusecs, Chashma: Inflows: 231,600 cusecs and Outflows 220,000 cusecs, Taunsa: Inflows 223,900 cusecs and Outflows 200,500 cusecs, Panjnad: Inflows 21,900 cusecs and Outflows 5,900 cusecs, Guddu: Inflows 182,200 cusecs and Outflows 149,900 cusecs, Sukkur: Inflows 128,000 cusecs and Outflows 70,400 cusecs Kotri: Inflows 50,700 cusecs and Outflows 17,800 cusecs.

Reservoirs (Level and Storage): Tarbela: Minimum operating level 1,392 feet, present level 1,455.10 feet, maximum conservation level 1550 feet, live storage today 1.406 million acre feet (MAF). Mangla: Minimum operating level 1,050 feet, present level 1,226.20 feet, maximum conservation level 1,242 feet, live storage 6.137 MAF.