The dawn of 2019

There are hopes and there are fears. As the saying goes, it is the best of times and the worst of times. At the dawn of 2019, we can collectively choose to go back to square one where everything – state and society included – is subject to the whims of personalities and the dictates of current circumstances or we can sit together and chart a new path of shared development characterised by a stable economy, vibrant society, and strong institutions.

The year 2019 will hopefully not end in despair like 2018 did. Although we have surmounted the biggest existential threat – terrorism – which many security analysts had feared would wipe us out from the world map, the undercurrents can still be felt. The enemy, through the effective utilisation of cyberspace, can exploit our ethnic and sectarian vulnerabilities to inflame emotions against the state.

Cyber attacks against organisations and states in the form of hacking data aren’t perceived as dangerous as the war of narratives launched through social media outlets.

One response, which is neither effective nor feasible, is to ban access to social media or, for that matter, other sources of information. It is not much different from someone’s proposition of imposing restrictions on imports from other countries in order to protect a country’s industry.

For a while and for a few people, it would pay dividends. But from a long-term and holistic perspective, it would make the whole economy implode from within. The strategy of the protectionism of information and of the economy essentially kills creativity and competition – the two pulls of progress.

A more mature response to the information era, in which one can hardly differentiate truth from falsehood and genuine news from propaganda, is to revisit the way we educate our kids. The education system in vogue at all levels in Pakistan hardly fosters creativity and critical thinking.

Questioning authority and established traditions is considered heretical and unpatriotic. This attitude of blindly following something during the formative years leads to the uncritical acceptance of all types of news – true or false – disseminated on social media. The paradigm of indoctrination needs to be revisited in 2019.

The game of politics doesn’t seem to be much different in 2019. Instead of statecraft, our political class will be consumed by politics as usual and will obey the precepts of Machiavelli, with even greater vigour in the year ahead.

The signs are already out there. The fight against corruption was the key message of Imran Khan’s maiden speech as PM in parliament. This seriousness or the lack of it has now created an environment of political uncertainty in the country. The PML-N and the PPP, the two big parties that are feeling much of the accountability heat, are using every card in their hand to undo the government’s actions against them. After all said and done, democracy in Pakistan seems to be on the anvil again with non-elected institutions calling the shots in the future.

The economy, reeling under the worst fiscal and current account deficits, is likely to make some recovery in 2019. With the looming danger of default now averted and some harsh policy decisions being made, we can expect an increase in investment and exports. Some countries and companies have already shown interest in coming to Pakistan to obtain benefit from the tremendous opportunities available here.

The huge untapped market and abundance of natural resources coupled with a young population are the sources of optimism for those thinking of the country’s strength from an economic perspective. However, one should not underestimate the nexus of politics and the economy.

Imran Khan has promised us a new Pakistan – a Pakistan reflecting the vision of Iqbal and Quaid-e-Azam, a country where everyone is equal in the eyes of the law; where the state serves its people by providing them healthcare and education facilities; and where they feel secure and have all socioeconomic opportunities available to them for self-fulfilment.

Given the complexity and magnitude of various challenges, it would be naive to expect too much from him or, for that matter, from any other leader in 2019. The year would go one step forward in one area and two steps back in another area. This is how each year defines our fate.

The writer teaches at SZABIST, Islamabad

Email: dr.zeb@szabist-isb.edu.pk