The fall of Assad

Over this past weekend, the world saw the end of over half a century of Assad family/dynasty rule in Syria. Syrian rebels seized the capital of Damascus, hours after President Bashar al-Assad fled the country on a flight to Moscow. The departure of the Assad regime saw Syrians, both in Syria and those in the diaspora across the world, celebrate the end of what can be fairly described as a brutal and repressive authoritarian regime and the potential end of a 13-year long civil war that has claimed the lives of over half a million people. Many in the social media sphere are trying to paint this development as the culmination of a long, bloody popular struggle against an oppressive ruler. However, this would be a rather naive point of view. The timing of Assad’s fall and the lightning speed with which it took place suggest there is more to what is going on. The Syrian Civil War, as is often the case with conflicts in the Middle East, has had more than its fair share of external intervention from larger regional and global powers seeking to exploit the conflict for their gain. Soon after the war had started, it became apparent that the US and Israel were doing all they could to strengthen the hand of the Syrian opposition, while Iran and Russia had sought to protect Assad.

Assad was likely on borrowed time ever since the war in Ukraine and the events of October 7, 2023, which significantly weakened Russia and Iran, respectively. The Netanyahu government's slaughter of the Hezbollah high command appears to have been particularly damaging, given the role the Iran-allied militia played in supporting Assad against the Syrian opposition. In this context, Syria was indirectly a part of Iran’s so-called ‘axis of resistance’ against the governments of Washington and Tel Aviv. Many would now argue that this axis has come to an end and that Assad’s departure is as much a victory for American-Zionist imperial interests as it is for the Syrian opposition. The Washington-Tel Aviv alliance has just removed a key enemy of the Zionist state, which continues to occupy a portion of Syria, and the general weakening of the ‘axis of resistance’ gives it a freer hand to move against the Palestinians. Now that Assad is gone, both the Joe Biden and Netanyahu administrations have been dropping bombs on Syria. The former claims it is targeting Daesh while the latter is reportedly ensuring weapons do not fall into ‘hostile hands’.

Washington-Tel Aviv's intervention in Middle East conflicts often brings with it the rise of extremist groups and terrorist outfits. In the case of Syria, Daesh and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), both former Al-Qaeda affiliates, have been a prominent part of the Syrian opposition. While the former has now been severely weakened, the latter now appears to be the largest and strongest group within the opposition umbrella. Its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, appears to have gone through somewhat of a transformation. A man who once worked with Daesh and led a group accused of sectarian killings of religious minorities is rebranding himself as a flexible moderate interested in stability and promising safety to minorities. Whether this is a genuine change or an opportunistic attempt at appeasing international supporters, particularly Washington and Zionist state, is something only time will tell. History, however, warns us to be cynical when it comes to US interventions. We have seen the results in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya. The new system that is put in place after the previous ‘bad’ regime has been disposed of is often much worse on nearly every metric. Sectarian divides are exacerbated, countries and regions are destabilised, and millions are forced to flee their homes. The promise of democracy and human rights becomes a bad joke. As such, Syria’s future could well be a resurgence in conflict and division. This could also spell trouble for the wider region, with renewed conflict in Syria potentially exacerbating conflicts elsewhere. It is hoped that this trend will not re-emerge but it is a possibility that governments should be on-guard against. The imperialist cloud that continues to shadow the Muslim world rarely has a silver lining and pessimism often remains the safest bet. Any optimism about Syria should, for now, be tempered with a strong dose of caution.