Irsa predicts 16pc water shortage for Punjab, Sindh in Rabi season

ISLAMABAD: The Indus River System Authority (Irsa) has forecast a 16 percent irrigation water shortage for Punjab and Sindh during the upcoming Rabi season, which runs from October 1 to March 31. The shortage will impact major crops including wheat, tobacco, barley, mustard, gram, lentils, potatoes, onions and tomatoes.

Irsa’s Advisory Committee, chaired by Abdul Hameed Mengal, met on Wednesday to outline the water availability criteria for the 2024-25 Rabi season. The committee projected a rim station inflow of 22 million acre-feet (MAF), with available storage of 9.58 MAF and system losses of 1.36 MAF, according to Irsa Spokesman Khalid Rana. The anticipated water release downstream of Kotri Barrage is expected to be 0.07 MAF.

The committee estimated that the total water availability at canal heads for the Rabi season would be 31.14 MAF, slightly lower than last year’s projection of 31.66 MAF. The anticipated shares for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan were set at 0.70 MAF and 1.17 MAF, respectively. Punjab and Sindh were allocated a combined total of 29.26 MAF, with Punjab receiving 16.68 MAF and Sindh 12.65 MAF.

The committee approved a basin-wide water shortage of 16 percent for the 2024-25 Rabi season and anticipated losses of 6 percent in the Indus Zone, with a review scheduled for late October or early November 2024 based on actual system performance.

The Chashma Barrage will be closed for a 20-day period starting December 26, 2024, for maintenance, aligning with canal closure schedules in Punjab and Sindh.

Wapda briefed the committee on progress at Tarbela’s Tunnel 5 hydropower project, which is expected to be completed within the 33-month closure period. Provincial irrigation demands will continue to be met during the Rabi season, and repairs to the T4 outlet are scheduled for completion by March 2025.

Concerns were raised over the slow progress of Tunnel 5 construction, with only 32 percent of the work completed versus the planned 50 percent. The committee urged Wapda to provide a firm completion timeline to ensure that provincial water supplies and dam filling schedules are not impacted.

During the meeting, the committee reviewed the performance of the Kharif 2024 system operation. Actual rim station inflows of 105.84 MAF through September 30 were 1 percent higher than the forecast 104.60 MAF and 7 percent above the 10-year average of 99.34 MAF. Provincial canal withdrawals were 19% below their allocated shares due to heavy rains and flooding from August to September 2024.

Indented water supplies were released to the provinces as per Irsa’s May 2024 decision. Actual system losses amounted to 11.90 MAF, compared to the forecast 14.80 MAF, while downstream Kotri releases totaled 21.52 MAF.

Thanks to improved inflows and efficient regulation, the storage volume available for transfer to the Rabi season stands at 10.577 MAF — six percent higher than the 10-year average but 9 percent below last year’s levels.