Low storage at Mangla Dam may hamper productivity of wheat crop

LAHORE: The below mark storage level at Mangla Dam on Jhelum River has raised concerns about the viability of strategic wheat crop.

The largest reservoir in the country, Mangla Dam on the Jhelum River, is likely to fall short of its maximum conservation capacity, keeping in view the current inflows and its filling pattern. This situation poses a risk to essential irrigation supplies for the crucial wheat crop that is set to be grown in the upcoming Rabi season, starting on October 1, 2024.

Canals originating from Mangla command in Indus Basin play pivotal role in providing dependable irrigation supplies to vast plains in upper, middle and lower plains in the Punjab province, which produces about 75 percent of total wheat production.

It is worth mentioning here that the last year’s bumper wheat production was partly made possible due to ample canal water availability during an extremely dry early and mid-Rabi periods.

As far as Mangla storage level is concerned, the water level stood at 1,216.35 feet on August 25, 2024, which is about 26 feet short of its maximum conservation level of 1,242 feet. The live or usable storage has been reported at just 5.347 MAF, which is more than two million acre short of filling capacity. Such a gap is highly unlikely to be filled in the current scenario.

The most worrying thing about non-filling of Mangla Dam has been the fact that surplus river inflows were recorded in the system during the ongoing Kharif season. Till now, more than 10 million acres feet of water has been released below Kotri into sea. Regrettably, the water regulator and other stakeholders could not plan and execute the filling criteria of Mangla Dam efficiently, the sources said.

About 40,000 cusecs of water was being released downstream Kotri in the middle of peak summer demand (early June). Nearly 0.7 MAF water was already drained into sea by end of early-Kharif season.

The sources claimed that as per the allocation of Kharif 2024 by IRSA, there should not be any flows downstream Kotri during the early Kharif season. However, it was learnt that Sindh was allowed downstream Kotri flows for drinking purposes but quantum of releases later increased significantly. Indus, Kabul and Chenab rivers have been flowing at much higher levels during the high flow seasons. So, an aggressive Mangla storage strategy is required to be followed.

Extraordinary demand from south Punjab also put strain on efforts to store maximum water in Mangla Dam. Outflows from the dam were gradually reduced but it was too little and too short as season was fast approaching toward conclusion. A false impression was being created that Mangla Dam was to be filled by August 20, said the sources.

Attaching top priority to Mangla filling from onset of season should have been followed. This bit-by-bit approach, aiming at saving every drop of water, always paid and by June 20, Mangla Dam used to reach 80 percent of maximum conservation level. However, this could not be the case this year despite healthy flows in the system.

Apart from the Indus River, sizeable outflows from various barrages, be it over Jhelum River or Sutlej River, are a clear sign of greater flows in the system than demand. Had these outflows been contained, there could have been much more water in the Mangla Dam during the ongoing season. In the emerging situation, Mangla Dam level may not even reach 1,225ft by the end of season, which may create negative consequences on Rabi crops.

When contacted, an official said that provincial irrigation department was trying its best to fill the Mangla Dam after fulfilling the current demand.

A spokesman of the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) strongly rejected the notion that Sindh was allowed to release water below Kotri into the sea in the middle of the season.