Electoral plot twist

At the end of the day, it will be no exaggeration to say that Election 2024 truly did belong to the independents. This should not have been as much of a surprise as it became since a few weeks before the election, there had been potent analysis that the 'independents' were the key to the election this time. Why the surprise then? The fact is that the February 8 election was being seen – rightly or wrongly – as 'managed', an election almost 'in the bag' for one party. The idea was that the independents would get a lot of seats but not the way they have – or at least were being seen to have before the semi-final results – and that the PML-N would be able to still form government both in the centre and Punjab, the PPP would get Sindh as it always does, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan would be divided among the two mainstream parties, independents and other parties. But things have not turned out that way.

As results started trickling in, the 'independents', most of whom are seen as PTI-backed, seemed to have done exceptionally well. The PML-N looked to be in danger of losing its 'Takht-e-Punjab', and it seemed like the planner and movers and shakers of the 'system' here had miscalculated the potency of the PTI's narrative. On February 9, that too seemed to miraculously change, in what the more cynical or practical among us would say has been a scramble to maneuver a result that can be somehow salvaged by the PML-N. Whether or not these are correct estimations or not, the point is: what exactly are these political parties and their voters fighting for? If everything depends on last-minute interventions, then why are we even bothering with expensive electoral exercises? What democracy is being tried to be saved here? The 2018 election was contentious enough; we now have an even stronger candidate in the shape of the current election.

As Pakistan still awaits a final election result, which is why talking numbers seems futile for now, where do things stand politically? The PML-N’s candidate for the prime minister slot, Nawaz Sharif, has invited all the parties who have secured seats in the election to form a government with the PML-N in the coming days. In his 'victory speech', Nawaz expressed his desire to form a unity government – leading to the inevitable question: are we seeing a return of PDM 2.0 now that no political party has a clear majority? Here's what most analysis says: the PML-N had been expecting a simple majority but they were not able to motivate their voters enough to go out and vote and give them a clear majority. The PTI's independents however did manage to do that. Now the PPP may get to play kingmaker again. For the PPP, the independents will be the golden goose, and there are those who think the PPP will be able to woo independents through money and perks. This also makes sense when one thinks of the PPP weighing a PDM 2.0 option: why would the party again want to be a junior partner in a PMLN-led government when Bilawal had led an aggressive campaign against the PML-N in Punjab?

That said, Pakistan desperately needs stability and if a unity government can bring that about, one hopes myopia doesn't trump national interest. Social and political engineering over the last decade has destroyed the social fabric of Pakistan and we need a new charter of democracy and charter of economy. We need political parties to learn to trust not just each other but also themselves and their voters, instead of running to patrons who will turn against them at any moment. This is why another PDM government would not be a bad idea for many experts. They say the PPP will form government in Sindh and the PML-N in Punjab. The two could be partners in a coalition government after some give and take. This has been a bad decade or so for Pakistan. The country needs to heal now. And our politicians need to work together for long-term rules of engagement and use parliament as their main forum. We don’t need more disruptions. We need stability. We don't need interventions. We need independent politics. We don't need patrons. We need partners. It is time to let go of the hybrid in hybrid democracy. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem like we will be seeing that any time soon.