Tensions simmering in South China Sea, Myanmar as Laos takes ASEAN chair

BANGKOK: Simmering tensions in the South China Sea between China and several Southeast Asian nations now regularly spark direct confrontation. Fighting in Myanmar against the military government that seized power three years ago has grown to the point that most say the country is now in a civil war.

Hopes were high that Indonesia might be able to make significant inroads on both issues during its 2023 chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, using its clout as the bloc’s largest country, but little progress was made. Now Laos, the bloc’s poorest and one of its smallest countries, has taken over the rotating chair.

As foreign ministers gather in Luang Prabang for this year’s first top-level meetings over the weekend, many are pessimistic that ASEAN can keep its biggest challenges from festering and growing. “There were so many expectations when Indonesia started its presidency and some of those expectations fell short,” said Shafiah Muhibat, an expert with the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Indonesia. “So with Indonesia moving on to Laos, I think the expectations are quite low in terms of what Laos can actually do.”

After the military seized control of Myanmar in February 2021 from the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi, ASEAN — comprised of Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Myanmar, Cambodia, Brunei and Laos — came up with a “Five-Point Consensus” plan for peace. The military leadership in Myanmar has so far ignored the plan. At the same time, a humanitarian crisis is growing, with more than 2.6 million people forced from their homes due to escalating violence, according to the United Nations.

Indonesia, despite touting more than 180 “engagements” with stakeholders in Myanmar, was unable to achieve a breakthrough.

ASEAN’s plan calls for the immediate cessation of violence, a dialogue among all concerned parties, mediation by an ASEAN special envoy, provision of humanitarian aid through ASEAN channels, and a visit to Myanmar by the special envoy to meet all concerned parties. “ASEAN actually has very little leverage on Myanmar; Myanmar doesn’t care about ASEAN at all,” said Muhammad Faizal, with the Institute of Defense and Strategic studies at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. “They don’t give a hoot about the five-point consensus.”