Donald Trump’s tour of Asia —
Donald Trump’s tour of Asia — his most significant exercise in foreign policy since taking office — provided, in many ways, a snapshot of his presidency. Like the curate’s egg, his diplomatic foray was good in parts. But its overall effect has been to strengthen doubts over US commitment to longstanding alliances, undermine confidence in American values and place the US on the sidelines of regional initiatives.
The underlying aims of the trip were threefold. First, to urge unity in confronting and containing the nuclear threat posed by North Korea. Second, to reassert America’s role in the region as counterweight to a newly assertive China. Third, to advance his transactional, zero sum view of economic relations, favouring bilateral dealmaking over multilateral trade agreements.
Despite the inherent inconsistency of these aims, the first part of the trip was a moderate success. In Tokyo and in South Korea, Mr Trump gave the necessary reassurance of America’s support in security matters. There was no intemperate language or goading of Pyongyang: Mr Trump stuck to his script, underlined the need for collective action and called on North Korea to come to the negotiating table.
All this is cause for relief. But Mr Trump’s conduct became more questionable on arrival in Beijing. His flattery of Xi Jinping was fulsome — it extended to congratulating China’s president on the party congress at which he cemented his authoritarian powers. There was no mention of human rights. Mr Trump appeared content to present a sheaf of business deals as evidence that he was rectifying what he considers to be an “unbalanced” trade relationship. But there was no sign of substantive work to tackle US complaints on market access, or Chinese concerns about barriers to investing in the US tech sector.
The low point, however, came in Vietnam, where Mr Trump attacked the World Trade Organization, raged against “chronic trade abuses”, said he did not blame other countries for “taking advantage” of the US and declared his intention to act — through bilateral deals only — on the narrowest possible interpretation of US economic interest.
This appeal to economic nationalism — couched in the language Mr Trump uses with grassroots voters — was addressed to Asian-Pacific leaders whose countries are among the biggest beneficiaries of the liberal trade order. Indeed, they had gathered to try and resurrect a regional trade pact that Mr Trump ditched on his first day in office. The message could not have been more discordant, or more offensive.
To call for regional unity on security threats, while making it clear that America will fight for national economic advantage at the expense of its allies, is a difficult message to sell. It will be all the harder when Mr Trump has shown that his instinct is to admire and pander to the region’s strongmen, rather than to stand up to them. A slightly too cordial press conference with Mr Xi is one thing. To take Vladimir Putin’s word over that of US intelligence agencies or to cosy up to Rodrigo Duterte, the murderous Philippine president, is quite another.
All this sends a direct message that the US can no longer be relied on to uphold liberal values or the liberal economic order on which its own prosperity — and that of many in the region — has been built. It is unsurprising that Asian-Pacific governments are drawing their own conclusions and — in trade at least — preparing to go it alone.
Beijing will seize the opportunity. Mr Xi, in his address to the Apec summit in Vietnam, again spoke in praise of globalisation. China will move swiftly to fill the space left by America’s retreat.
