Italy's Giorgia Meloni prevails in by-election showdown with far-right newcomer

Italy's ruling coalition won a closely watched by-election in the southern region of Calabria on Monday.

It was the first major test for ‌Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni against a new far-right foe ahead of a general election due next year.

National Future, led by former army general Roberto Vannacci, has surged to around 9% in opinion polls since its launch in February, overtaking Meloni's junior coalition partners and challenging the right in the conservative constituency of Reggio Calabria.

However, the party's bid fell short, ⁠with the government candidate taking about 53% of the vote, while Vannacci's nominee secured roughly 10%, according to a partial count.

Analysts had predicted a stronger showing for Vannacci in a traditionally rightist stronghold, saying he might have split the right-wing vote and handed victory to the centre-left.

"We won by a landslide," Roberto Occhiuto, governor of Calabria and deputy leader of the coalition party Forza Italia, said in a video posted on X.

Support for Vannacci has grown nationwide on the back of his anti-migrant rhetoric and calls for what he describes as traditional Italian values.

His rise has ‌unsettled ⁠Meloni and could complicate her re-election prospects, drawing away voters who backed her coalition at the last national ballot in 2022.

Pollsters have said she could keep hold of power if she forged an alliance with Vannacci. But any such tie-up would cause tension within government ranks.

Parliament undersecretary Matilde Siracusano, a Forza Italia lawmaker ⁠and Occhiuto's partner, warned that any electoral pact with National Future would pose "a serious problem".

She has said she will sue Vannacci after he posted an AI-generated image on social media showing her wearing a ⁠revealing, low-cut top.

The centre-left candidate in the by-election won about 35% of the vote, improving on the bloc's performance in 2022, although turnout was just 22% against 49.4% four years ago.

"With ⁠turnout extremely low, strong media attention and a candidate with significant personal backing, I believe Vannacci expected a far better showing," said Lorenzo Pregliasco, the head of polling firm YouTrend.

Vannacci himself did not immediately comment on the result.