El Nino forecast signals hotter, drier weather as global food supply faces pressure from Iran war

An El Nino forecast pointing to the strongest event in a decade is raising concerns about global crop production as farmers also face supply disruptions linked to the Iran war.

Weather agencies in Japan, China and India have warned that El Nino could bring hotter and drier conditions across Asia in the second half of 2026.

Meteorologist Chris Hyde from Meteomatics told Reuters: “We are already seeing heat and dryness in parts of Australia and India.”

He added, “The last time we saw similar signals was during the severe 2015 to 2016 El Niño.”

El Nino is a warming of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean that can trigger drought in Asia and affect global harvests.

In Australia, farmers have already cut back planting after months of low rainfall.

In Southeast Asia, production of palm oil could fall.

“A mild episode may cause only limited disruption, but a stronger and longer El Niño event could lead to five per cent to 12 per cent production declines,” said industry official M.R. Chandran according to Reuters.

Fertiliser supply has also been disrupted as the Iran war affects shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, adding further pressure on global food production.