SpaceX says AI rather than rockets is its biggest market

SpaceX built its reputation on rockets. Its S-1 filing, the regulatory document companies submit before going public, reveals where it expects to make most of its money: artificial intelligence for businesses, in a market it values at $22.7 trillion.

Based on the analysis conducted by Reuters, SpaceX's total addressable market is estimated to be worth $28.5 trillion. Over 90% of this amount ($26.5 trillion) can be attributed to the AI industry.

The biggest segment, valued at $22.7 trillion, is dedicated entirely to enterprise AI. Neither rockets nor satellites have contributed to such expectations.

"We believe we have identified the largest actionable total addressable market in human history," the document states.

Total addressable market figures in S-1 filings are aspirational by design; they represent maximum theoretical revenue if a company captured every customer in a given space. But the sheer scale of SpaceX's AI estimate, and the fact it sits at the centre of the IPO pitch, signals where the company intends to direct capital after listing.

The target valuation of the SpaceX IPO is around $1.75 trillion. SpaceX hopes to raise around $75 billion from its IPO, which will break the record for being the highest IPO ever raised by any organisation, beating Saudi Aramco's record of raising $25.6 billion in 2019.

Additionally, such an IPO will provide SpaceX with currency to pursue a business that is totally different from the one it has been pursuing for over two decades.

SpaceX currently generates revenue primarily through launch contracts, the Starlink satellite internet network, and government defence work. None of those lines map cleanly onto a $22.7 trillion AI opportunity. The filing is effectively telling prospective shareholders that the company they are buying into is not the one they think they know.