The tragic memories of the devastating floods of 2010 are still fresh in the minds of people who saw thousands of people lose their lives. The loss of property, livestock, and agriculture was in addition to this.

The state organisations responsible for managing floods and mitigating their adverse impacts were caught unaware and had no sense of direction or capacity to cope with disaster of this magnitude.

Experts had warned the country would experience floods of similar magnitude in years to follow.

As flood waters subsided and hapless affectees started from scratch, the government called for assessment of losses, identification of reasons that multiplied the scale of disaster, and recommendations from experts on how to tackle floods.

The Federal Flood Commission (FFC) was one such body which was asked to come up with a comprehensive report on 2010 floods.

The recommendations included improvement of coordination between the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and Provincial Disaster Management Authorities (PDMAs) in matters pertaining to policy formulation, coordination and resource mobilisation, establishment of District Disaster Management Authorities (DDMAs), building of disaster management capacities at local level and inclusion of vulnerable communities in the matrix.

It was also recommended to do away with institutional dichotomy at government level, resource allocation for development of shelter facilities for affected communities, and their rehabilitation in a short span of time and putting in place a modern and reliable flood forecasting and management system.

It was also observed at that time that there was no flash flood warning system in Pakistan, except at Nullah Lai in Rawalpindi. This was important as Balochistan, KPK, Northern Areas, and some parts of Punjab are prone to flash floods, which bring very high water mass, with great intensity in little time.

So, it was suggested that there should be a reliable flash flood forecasting and warning system in Pakistan. There were also suggestions that the government should devise clear policies on relocating dwellers from riverine and katcha areas, put an end to deforestation, introduce proper watershed management system, and so on.

Four years down the road, one finds that there is a long way to go as a lot of recommendations are long-term and involve huge budgets while some are not workable. "There is a need to make people realise that they will have to live with floods and so adapt themselves accordingly," says Dr. Qamar uz Zaman Chaudhry, National Climate Change Expert, UNDP, Pakistan and Special UN-World Meteorological Organization UN-WMO Envoy for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR)/Climate Services for Asia. He cites the example of Bangladesh, where people build huts on eight to ten feet tall bamboos so that the flood/cyclone water can pass without harming the structures.

He says normally it is very easy for commissions to come up with recommendations which are mostly wish-lists. "Construction of new dams and increasing their capacity, desilting of water reservoirs and water courses, shifting of flood water diversion through escape channels are options but how can Pakistan avail them if there are no funds and political consensus?" he asks.

Zaman suggests a system for real-time exchange of hydrological (rivers flow and reservoirs level) data between provinces and India and Pakistan should be set up without delay. Talking to TNS, he says "the UN-WMO’s international data exchange policy requires that all its members shall provide, on a free and unrestricted basis, hydrological data and products that are necessary for the provision of services in support of the protection of life and property and for the well-being of all peoples."

Both India and Pakistan, he says, are members and signatories of WMO and the Indus Water Treaty’s article VI on data exchange also requires hydrological data exchange between the two countries. He says when he was the vice-president of UN-WMO in Asia Region he tried a lot for the success of this initiative but, unfortunately, inspite of funding assurance from USAID, it could not materialise mainly because of lukewarm response from India.

Zaman says availability of such information on real-time basis will result in country’s greater ability to save human life and property of people in the region, particularly on the Pakistani side, it being a lower riparian.

Citing an example, he says, back in 1997 he got credible information about unprecedented rains in the catchment areas of Jhelum River. He contacted the concerned authorities and asked them to release water from Mangla dam to create space for likely floodwater but he was not taken seriously. But after the involvement of military engineering department and president of Pakistan, 200,000 cusecs of water was released 24 hours before the rains hit the region. They kept on releasing water throughout the rains which averted flooding in the river and earned Dr Chaudhry Pride of Performance the following year.

He believes floods should be managed by measures, such as diverting water to wetlands, escape heads and proper management of dams. This year, the outflow from Tarbela has been reduced to avoid flooding in Indus which is receiving floodwater coming from Chenab. Other suggestions he gives include restoration of climate change ministry, clearance of katcha areas from encroachments and announcement and adoption of an integrated flood management plan.

Water and energy expert, Arshad Abbasi, believes a major cause of floods in the country is the traditional approach to manage floods with structural measures, such as construction of dykes, embankments, spurs, etc. He says "structural measures can never completely eliminate the risk of flooding. Nevertheless, because of their physical presence, they have the potential to create a false sense of security, leading to inappropriate land use in the protected areas. Yet, this is the most lucrative business, now turned into industry in Pakistan."

Abbasi says the most innovative concept in practice in the world for the last two decades is the introduction of non-structural measures and include land use regulations, watershed management, flood proofing, disaster prevention, preparedness and response mechanisms. "These steps are effective worldwide but the Federal Flood Commission (FCC) is not focusing on these," he adds.

He says floodplain zoning is a concept too central to floodplain management. This concept, he says, recognises the basic fact that the floodplain of a river is essentially its domain and any intrusion into or developmental activity therein must recognise the river’s right of way. "There are several satellite images taken from time to time that show that the route of River Chenab has been continuously encroached in the last few years."

Abbasi laments that disaster reduction strategies have never been a priority of the governments. A proof of this, he says, is that a dam which could have been built on River Chenab in Punjab at a cost of Rs 23 billion has not been constructed yet. A site called Rabwa Gorge has been identified for this purpose. On the other hand, he says, metro buses and motorways are being built at many times this amount.

"Had this dam been built it could have stored one million acre feet (MAF) water and the Chenab flood would have been managed. Besides, it could have covered its cost in four to five years by producing electricity," he adds.

A senior official in the Punjab Irrigation Department tells TNS that it is wrong to say that they are not doing their job properly. He says the irrigation infrastructure of the country is too old and too weak to resist flow of flood water. "So, what happens is that dykes are blown even if there is no need to do that, just to save headworks, barrages, etc," he says, adding, "Officials are asked to save infrastructure as at any cost. But, unfortunately, the total amount allocated every year for country’s maintenance of irrigation infrastructure is less than Rs 1 billion."

The official shows skepticism regarding construction of new dams and link canals to divert water from one river to another. "Provinces suffer from trust deficit over construction and distribution of water. Link canals built in the past as flood canals have become perennial canals, which is not acceptable to lower riparian provinces. Small dams are the domain of provinces but they lack resources and depend on funds received from the centre," he concludes.