Pak vs Aus: Pakistan enjoy the edge in a no-grudge semifinal

If India and New Zealand were must-win grudge matches, Pakistan’s semi-final against Australia has no such edge to it. It will most likely be a scrum between a team brimming with confidence against a resurgent team with unmatched tournament-winning pedigree.

In this T20 World Cup, the two teams have swapped persona. Today’s Pakistan is the settled, undefeated Australia of the past, demolishing opponents at will. Today’s Australia is that uncertain, late-blooming Pakistan scrapping through to the knockout stage thanks to a better net run rate.

In fact, the parallels in the alternative universe are even more uncanny. Uncertainty hounds Australia. The team has revolted against Justin Langer and the head coach’s future with the team is as certain as Melbourne’s weather. Australia – of all teams – can’t agree on a starting XI or whether they play a batsman or a bowler heavy. Shane Warne has gone to the extent of calling for Steve Smith to be dropped. Sounds so…Pakistan.

Pakistan, meanwhile, are that in perfect celestial zone that no sorcerer could had conjured ahead of the tournament. Pakistan will make it to the semi-finals, that most pundits agreed. But no one expected them to be undefeated, including knocking out India, the presumptive pre-tournament favorite. No one expected an unchanged XI either, so balanced the side is. For all the drama that preceded the tournament, this group of players has camaraderie and discipline and has gelled as a team. Like Australia of the past.

The stars are even more aligned. While Australia has historically thumped Pakistan at home and won frequently in global tournaments. The two last met in a knock-out game in 2010 when Michael Hussey’s 24-ball 60 helped Australia chase a mammoth 191 and eventually win the World Cup. That game was in St Lucia. This is the United Arab Emirates.

In the UAE, Pakistan is on a 16-game winning streak. More importantly for this semi-final, Dubai has been an especially happy hunting ground for Pakistan against Australia. In the 2018 series, Pakistan won twice in Dubai in a 3-0 whitewash. In both games in late October, Pakistan elected to bat first and that too under lights.

Nine of the players who defeated Australia in 2018 will again take the field on Thursday. Three of them – 2018 Player of the Series Azam and Player of the Match winners Imad Wasim and Shahdab Khan – are in form and will be central to Pakistan’s winning strategy. Add Mohammad Hafeez to the spin attack and Pakistan has an edge over Australia in Dubai. The bowling attack has not allowed any opponent to score more than 151 runs, thanks in large parts to the spinners both taking wickets and containing runs.

Pakistan bowlers will also be pleased with Australia’s hit-and-miss batting so far. Worryingly for Pakistan, David Warner has found form and will pose the biggest threat. The rest have been more miss than hit. Only two Australians have scored 50s – two by Warner and one by Mitch Marsh. Pakistan has seven by three batters. Australia is also struggling with power hitting in UAE conditions. Incredibly as it may sound, Mohammad Rizwan has twice as many sixes in the tournament than David Warner. Their power hitting talisman – Glenn Maxwell – is yet to fire at all.

To be sure, Australia has world class bowlers of their own. Adam Zampa has 11 scalps and is the tournament’s second-highest wicket taker. Australian attack has variety too. Josh Hazelwood’s accuracy and bounce will be crucial to Australia’s campaign and will trouble Pakistan, for example. Australia’s planning is also difficult because Pakistan’s batting hasn’t faced a stern test so far, the 3 down for 30 in the power play type test. Even when tested, then middle order or power hitters have lifted the team to victory. The tournament’s most prolific and consistent batter– Azam – is yet to win one Player of the Match award but five others have.

While there are concerns about Fakhar Zaman and Hassan Ali, both are being backed by Azam and the team management. Azam exudes an air of confidence to announce - two days before the semi-final - that he’ll play an unchanged team. And he has rightly doubled down on Hassan.

“As a captain, I can’t even think about sitting Hassan out,” he told the media. “He’s my main bowler. He’s my match winner. He’s won many matches, many tournaments for Pakistan.”

Australia’s biggest challenge against Pakistan will be choosing the 11 players they field. Should they go batting heavy to withstand against Pakistan’s superior bowling or bowling heavy to counter Pakistan’s consistent batting? Australia will be wise to note that India chose to go a bowler short and paid the price. In Australia’s loss to England, they went with five bowlers.

Overall, even when Pakistan ticks all the boxes to win, Australia always has the mental strength to win pressure games. As hold as Pakistan holds nerves and wins the small battles, a spot in the final is theirs to take.