Taliban 2.0

The inevitable is here: the withdrawal of US and Nato forces was followed by the accession of the Taliban over Afghanistan. This dramatic shift of power came about, surprisingly, without any resistance from the Afghan National Defence Forces despite having been militarily trained by the US over a period of twenty years.

The Taliban seem to have been mulling over a number of considerations. One such hotly contested topic is the emergence of a relatively different era under Taliban rule, commonly referred to these days as Taliban II or Taliban 2.0.

Before jumping to any conclusions, there is a need to look at a number of elements which might influence the current regime of the Taliban. These elements, as delineated below, may also prove a buffer to a tyrannical rule by the Taliban, which is much feared by international forces and human rights activists.

Afghanistan in 2021 is much different from the time when the US declared the ‘war on terror’ and seized the country under the disguise of self-defence and responsibility to protect. Today, despite inheriting a country which has better infrastructure and investments worth billions of dollars, innumerable challenges confront the Taliban. For the Taliban to be able to comply with their recent statements, promising to honour human rights and to rule without any trouble, depends massively on the economic prosperity of the country. With Biden freezing colossal foreign reserves and other countries restricting their trade with the newly-captured Afghanistan, its economy seems to be nose-diving – evidenced through a sharp decline in the value of the Afghan currency. Against the backdrop of Biden standing squarely behind his decision of troop withdrawal, the ball now seems to be entirely in the court of the Taliban to formulate sound economic policies before the situation deteriorates any further.

Additionally, being a landlocked country, the progression of Afghanistan’s fiscal structure is directly linked with continuance of trade internationally and opening up of similar new avenues through bilateral and multilateral negotiations and contracts with other countries. China’s One Belt One Road initiative connects Central Asian countries to Europe; therefore, the geographical location of Afghanistan becomes a pivotal juncture. Fifty-seven percent of Afghan trade also passes through Pakistan. Hence, peaceful relations with Pakistan ought to be in place.

The geopolitical landscape has also been leaning in favor of granting legitimacy to the Taliban rule, as is evident from the statements given by Troika-plus-one (consisting of Pakistan, US, China, and Russia), provided that the former lends de facto and de jure recognition to the basic principles of human rights, governance, and due process, as enshrined in various international law instruments.

Formal recognition of the Taliban-led Afghanistan may also become a necessity for the aforementioned countries keeping in view their security stakes, both domestically and internationally. For China and Russia specifically, the security fallout in the South Asian region is unaffordable and would otherwise translate into gigantic economic losses and potentially a civil strife extending beyond the borders of Afghanistan.

The fate of women in Afghanistan is also of concern. Restrictions on women’s education and women journalists are increasingly being highlighted in international media. Despite chances of propaganda advanced by media, the history of the Taliban and their former rule in Afghanistan cannot rule out their formidable and disempowering stance on women’s social, economic, and political rights given their obscurantist and dogmatic understanding of Shariah and Islam.

Thus, much needs to be contemplated upon by Taliban 2.0 to change the course of their history, tainted with malafide and treacherous rule. To gain validity for their governance regime, they need to conform to the fundamental principles of rule of law and rule by the consent of the people. On the contrary, the comeuppance for derogating from these essential principles can be lethal. To avoid this morbidity, it is needless to reiterate again the crucial role that Pakistan needs to play considering its ties with the history of Afghanistan and focal position in the South Asian region. For the Taliban to turn the tide of snippy criticisms, an interplay of inclusive and pluralistic governance policies and a collaborative effort on the international front are the prerequisites.

The writer is a Lahore-based lawyer and an alumnus of LUMS. She can be reached at aimenakhtar97@gmail.com