State of war

There is no longer any question of Afghanistan falling into a situation of civil war. The fact is that this war has already begun in that country, and a new level of international panic has been triggered as a result. The extended troika of nations, consisting the US, Pakistan, Russia and China, have met in Doha to discuss the situation and the US has warned the Taliban that if they take control of Afghanistan by force their nation will become a pariah state. At the same time, in what is an alarming twist of events, that have been predicted for months though, the US has warned Pakistan about safe havens for militants along its borders with Afghanistan. All this sounds familiar. We have seen the situation before, and once again a major superpower, which has failed to train and equip the Afghan army to be able to hold off the Taliban, despite 20 years spent in that country, is now attempting to turn Pakistan into a possible scapegoat.

As the Taliban advance in Afghanistan, with three more provincial capitals falling to them, and nine of the 34 capitals in the country now in Taliban hands, Pakistan must keep a careful consideration of what is happening and what should be done since Pakistan will be worst affected by a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan and is indeed already being affected. Pakistan is already seeing small-scale attacks, and experts on the region predict other attacks could follow as sleeper cells, which had grown quiet after the military operation against the TTP in previous years, once again come into action bolstered by the gains of the Taliban in Afghanistan.

While the Afghan Taliban have said they have no intention to allow their country's soil to be used against any other state, the reality is that the Taliban in Afghanistan and splinter groups of the Taliban in Pakistan share a similar ideology and the same perception on many events. Already the splinter TTP troops have begun to come together and have agreed upon some form of leadership. Pakistan appears to be fully aware of how dangerous this is for itself and the people of Pakistan. Its efforts to stop being turned into a scapegoat for the failures of the US and of Europe must take the form of diplomatic talks with other nations, interchanges with US officials, and media publicity of precisely what is happening. Pakistan must also prepare for a time when beleaguered Afghan people who have already been internally displaced begin to move into Pakistan. In all this, it is really the ordinary Afghan who is suffering the most. There is a great deal at stake and the only way out of a bigger mess is to ensure a peace settlement in Afghanistan.