Govt’s long term power capacity plan flawed: study

KARACHI: Pakistan’s new long-term power capacity plan has failed to live up to the government’s stated principles of sustainability and affordability, findings of a study revealed on Friday.

The study, titled “Pakistan risks locking into overcapacity and expensive power” was conducted by Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) and was launched through a webinar held under the auspices of Alliance for Climate Justice and Clean Energy (ACJCE).

“Power demand growth forecasts made under Integrated Generation Capacity Enhancement Plan-2047 (IGCEP-2047) are too high and do not take into account the impact of COVID-19,” states the study. Owing to the IGCEP’s overoptimistic power demand growth outlook, more power capacity than needed is planned to be built, warns the study.

“The Pakistan government’s principle of affordability cannot be met if the power system is locked into long-term overcapacity – capacity payments to plants lying idle are already an issue and would become even more unsustainable if more overcapacity is locked in,” said Simon Nicholas, author of the study. Notwithstanding the fact that wind and solar were already the cheapest source of power generation in Pakistan and would be even cheaper in the 2030s and 2040s, he said, the IGCEP had neglected modern clean energy in its model after 2030.

“Modeling declining contribution from renewables post-2030, the IGCEP-2047 seemed to have been oblivious to current power trends, he said. With utilisation at virtually zero by 2047, the addition of 20,000MW of unneeded LNG-fired power capacity between 2030 and 2047, as modeled under IGCEP-2047, would prove to be expensive stranded assets.”

Terming indiginisation of power through domestic coal-fired power as expensive, Nicholas said, renewable energy could reduce reliance on fossil fuel imports far more cheaply than coal power. “By prioritising expensive coal power over the cheap renewables, the IGCEP further failed to live up to the government’s affordability principle,” he said in the study.

Besides, the author said, the large amounts of domestic coal power to be introduced under IGCEP-2047 would also lead to a significant increase, not decrease, in the overall carbon emissions of Pakistan’s power system.