In the balance

The fate of future talks between the Afghan Taliban and the government of that country hangs in the balance due to a growing row between the current leader of the Afghan Taliban, Akhtar Muhammad Mansoor, and those who oppose his leadership. These opponents back Mullah Muhammad Yaqoob, the son of Mullah Omar as the man best suited to take over the leadership of the Afghan Taliban. Yaqoob, 26, graduated recently from a seminary in Karachi. The ongoing rivalry within the Afghan Taliban could have important regional repercussions. If there is no settlement between the militants and the government in Kabul, we could see growing insurgency, especially after Nato forces pull out over the coming months. There is clearly more and more hostility to these talks within Taliban ranks. The problems have grown since Mansoor sent a delegation to Murree to speak with Afghan government officials there. A press release regarding the talks being apparently endorsed by Mullah Omar was released after this meeting on the occasion of Eidul Fitr.
Adding to the uncertainty is the fact that Mullah Omar’s own fate is uncertain. Reports suggest he may have died some two years ago. His family strongly backs Yaqoob as his successor. But this rift within the Taliban makes it extremely difficult to reach any kind of settlement in Afghanistan and end the civil war that continues in that country. The arrival of Yaqoob on the scene would also reestablish the Mullah Omar branch of the Taliban as the head of the strong Afghan faction of the group and also strengthen its hold over the Pakistani Taliban with which Mullah Omar has always retained well-established links. The developments we are now seeing are then important for many reasons. How they will all pan out is as yet uncertain. It has been reported that Mansoor himself has virtually vanished from his usual locations said to be in Quetta while his allies, including Taliban leaders who attended the peace talks in Murree have gone to Saudi Arabia and failed to return from that country. The developments also indicate how even after a decade and a half of US-led occupation of Afghanistan by western forces, the Taliban remain fundamental to the future of that country. They also remain central to the future of our own region with events that are currently unfolding within the Afghan faction of the group certain to have an impact at home and on events that take place on our soil.