Riding Trump’s storm: what Pakistan can gain

Trump: disruption, unpredictability, controversy, chaos-controlled chaos, mind you. Four pillars, one man. Trump’s political strategy? Weaponize the unknown, turn unpredictability into power. Trump doesn’t just play the game; Trump owns the board. Trump steers the narrative; Trump outpaces the news cycle; and Trump dictates the endgame. For Trump, control isn’t a byproduct. For Trump, it’s the blueprint.

Trump catches allies, opponents and aides off guard. The Trump administration is about high personnel turnover. In his first 4-year term (2017-2021), there were five White House communications directors, four National Security Advisers, four White House Chiefs of Staff, 3 Attorney Generals, 3 Secretaries of Defense and 2 Secretaries of State, a record for a single presidential term. By the end of his term, Trump had 14 confirmed Cabinet secretaries leave office. Trump also has a pattern of pushing boundaries to test loyalty and power. Yes, the high turnover does create a narrative of dysfunction.

Trump communication style: hyperbole, tangents, off-the-cuff remarks and below-the-belt attacks on opponents. Goal: to remain at the center of public discourse. Trump communication approach: create memorable sound-bites (‘Make America Great Again’) and pivot from policy to personal jabs. Goal: overshadow political rivals. Trump’s media mastery is about dropping bombshells-knowing full well that the media would amplify the frenzy. Goal: to keep opponents reacting rather than setting their own agenda.

There also is a darker side to Trump’s political strategy. Remember, his use of dehumanizing language during the 2020 campaign, calling immigrants ‘rapists’ and ‘murderers’?

That fueled division and fear without explicitly directing violence but certainly amplifying tensions. Remember, his fiery rhetoric at the ‘Stop the Steal’ rally where he urged supporters to ‘fight like hell’? He didn’t explicitly call for violence but created an atmosphere that culminated in the storming of the U.S. Capitol. Remember, the Charlottesville rally where he equivocated by saying there were ‘very fine people on both sides’? Trump effectively gave a nod to white nationalist sentiments.

What can Pakistan glean from Trump’s unpredictability, penchant for disruption and high personnel turnover? Well, Trump’s high turnover often leaves U.S. foreign policy in a state of flux. With each new appointee scrambling to establish his or her footing, Pakistan’s diplomats can push for favorable terms before policies solidify. Pakistan can use this flux to renegotiate its position on issues like counterterrorism cooperation or economic aid.

Trump’s transactional approach prioritizes deals over alliances. Pakistan can offer strategic cooperation-say, in Afghanistan and the Indo-Pacific-in return securing concessions like military support or debt relief.

How about capitalizing on Trump’s anti-China sentiment? Pakistan can play a delicate balancing act by subtly signaling flexibility in trade and intelligence sharing-and extract economic benefits from the U.S. without fully alienating China.

How about Pakistan crafting its own sound-bites and narratives to shape US perceptions? Pakistan can emphasize its role in the Afghan peace process. Pakistan can counter India’s narrative and keep Pakistan relevant in Trump’s chaotic news cycle.

Trump’s chaos is a deliberate design to dominate and dictate. For Pakistan, Trump’s controlled chaos can be an opportunity-ripe for exploitation through agility, strategic deals, and narrative savvy.