Trump and Pakistan

With Donald Trump assuming the presidency, the world order appears to be undergoing a seismic shift, with the US dismantling its foreign interference apparatuses – such as USAID – while key Republican figures like Marco Rubio openly acknowledge the emergence of a multipolar world.

The imposition of tariffs on traditional allies like Mexico and Canada, along with Trump’s provocative threat to ‘take’ Greenland from Denmark, signals a dramatic departure from previous diplomatic norms.

Amid this upheaval, some in Pakistan have expressed enthusiasm over a recent visit by American businessmen led by Mr Gentry Beach. However, such optimism is misplaced and based on misconceptions about how investments actually work. Contrary to media speculation, Beach is not a close associate or confidant of President Trump; rather, he is a relatively minor investment manager based in Dallas. Some of this hype appears to stem from the ongoing propaganda war between the ruling party and the PTI. However, to dismiss this as mere partisan rhetoric would be an understatement – Pakistan’s foreign policy urgently needs a reality check.

Despite these shifting global dynamics, Pakistani media remains overwhelmingly fixated on domestic politics, offering little analysis of how Trump’s return to the White House could impact Pakistan. Given his historical stance on international relations, Trump’s second term is likely to influence Pakistan across several critical domains.

During his first term, Trump adopted a hardline approach toward Pakistan, suspending military aid and accusing the country of harbouring terrorists. This led to a freeze in security assistance and increased pressure for action against militant groups. With his return, a revival of this transactional dynamic seems likely – where Pakistan is pressed to take on counterterrorism efforts in Afghanistan, but with minimal reciprocation from Washington. Moreover, tensions have already begun to escalate – especially with recent reports regarding a long-range ballistic missile.

Adding to the strain are recent US congressional resolutions criticising Pakistan’s human rights record, particularly regarding political repression and media censorship. Several members of the US Congress, including Senator Chris Van Hollen and Representative Ro Khanna, have publicly voiced concerns about the treatment of opposition leaders, particularly Imran Khan. Tweets from US lawmakers condemning alleged electoral manipulation and suppression of political dissent fuelled speculation about a shift in Washington’s stance on Pakistan’s internal affairs.

While these statements may not directly translate into immediate policy changes, they serve as a warning sign that Pakistan could face increased diplomatic pressure, economic sanctions, or further aid restrictions depending on how the Trump administration views its relations with Pakistan. So far, Pakistan does not appear to be a priority for President Trump.

Trump played a key role in the Doha Agreement with the Taliban, which ultimately led to the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. In his second term, a further reduction in US engagement in South Asia seems plausible. While this could mean less diplomatic pressure on Pakistan regarding its Afghan policies, it could also translate to decreased US aid and investment in the region.

The USAID programme (it was just around $100 million for 2024-25) in Pakistan has already been hit by Trump’s worldwide blanket freeze of foreign aid.

The Trump administration’s recent suspension of visa processing for Afghan refugees has left thousands stranded in Pakistan, exacerbating humanitarian and logistical challenges for Islamabad.

The ‘America First’ doctrine could pose significant economic challenges for Pakistan. Trump’s previous term saw the imposition of trade restrictions, and this trend may continue, adversely affecting Pakistan’s exports. With the US wielding considerable influence over global financial institutions like the IMF, Pakistan may also face stricter loan conditions and economic pressure.

A particular concern is the potential for new trade barriers or sanctions, which could directly impact Pakistan’s key exports – such as textiles and agricultural products – disrupting an already struggling economy.

Trump’s confrontational stance on China suggests that escalating tensions between Washington and Beijing could indirectly impact Pakistan. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has long been a point of contention, with US officials expressing concerns over Pakistan’s deepening economic reliance on China. As Trump ramps up his economic and strategic rivalry with Beijing, Pakistan may find itself under pressure to reassess its relationship with its largest economic partner.

Military collaborations between China and Pakistan are also likely to attract heightened scrutiny from Washington. Increased US attention on defence procurements and strategic partnerships could complicate Islamabad’s efforts to maintain its delicate balancing act between Beijing and Washington.

Trump’s return to power could bring back stringent immigration policies, directly affecting Pakistani students, professionals and expatriates. During his first term, the US imposed tough restrictions on work and student visas. A reinstatement of such policies could limit educational and professional opportunities for Pakistanis seeking to study or work in the US.

Moreover, enhanced vetting processes and potential travel bans could further complicate mobility, impacting families and businesses with transnational ties.

A renewed focus on counterterrorism is anticipated, with expectations that Pakistan will take stronger action against extremist factions operating within its borders. The US may insist on greater transparency in Pakistan’s management of militant organisations and financial networks. Intelligence-sharing and military aid agreements may become conditional on Islamabad’s willingness to meet Washington’s security demands.

Pakistan’s media and policymakers must shift their focus from internal political battles to the broader global lan dscape. Trump’s return to power presents both challenges and opportunities, but navigating them will require strategic foresight, proactive diplomacy, and pragmatic economic planning.

If Islamabad fails to anticipate and adapt to these shifts, it risks economic disruptions, diplomatic isolation and increased geopolitical pressure. Strengthening regional partnerships, diversifying trade relations and adopting a nuanced foreign policy will be essential in mitigating the potential fallout from Trump’s presidency.

The coming years will test Pakistan’s ability to manage its international alliances. Whether it can rise to the occasion or remain caught in the crossfire of global power struggles will depend on its willingness to make informed, strategic decisions in an increasingly uncertain world.

The writer is former head of Citigroup’s emerging markets investments and author of ‘The Gathering Storm’.