In 2024, Pakistan’s installed power generation capacity remained at 42,131MW from all energy resources, generating 92,091 GWh throughout the year. Of this, hydropower, through most of its 33 installations in the public and private sectors, contributed 10,681MW to the national grid, accounting for 25.4 per cent of total capacity and generating 29,167GWh, representing 31.7 per cent of total electricity generation. These figures highlight the critical role of hydropower in the energy mix, both in terms of installed capacity and actual electricity generation, as the nation shifts towards clean and sustainable energy resources.
In 2024, Pakistan’s installed power generation capacity remained at 42,131MW from all energy resources, generating 92,091 GWh throughout the year. Of this, hydropower, through most of its 33 installations in the public and private sectors, contributed 10,681MW to the national grid, accounting for 25.4 per cent of total capacity and generating 29,167GWh, representing 31.7 per cent of total electricity generation. These figures highlight the critical role of hydropower in the energy mix, both in terms of installed capacity and actual electricity generation, as the nation shifts towards clean and sustainable energy resources.
Pakistan’s hydropower potential remains vast, with an estimated additional untapped capacity of 41,045MW. Optimal exploitation of this resource within a reasonable timeframe could significantly enhance water and electricity security. New volumetric capacity dams and associated hydropower generation can play a crucial role in addressing supply challenges. However, despite plans to construct at least one dam and hydropower project per decade after the completion of the Tarbela Dam in 1976, implementation has been hindered by various international and national challenges, including political and economic pressures, as well as technical and financial constraints.
Until recently, Pakistan’s market for dams and hydropower was dominated by Western sources of supply, technology and services. Since the completion of the Warsak Dam, the first major hydropower project commissioned in 1960, followed by Mangla in 1967 and Tarbela in 1976, Pakistan has relied on expertise, machinery, equipment, and technology from Canada, Germany, Italy, Austria, other European countries and Japan. Other hydropower projects commissioned primarily by Western sources in later years include Duber Khwar (130MW), Allai Khwar (121MW), New Bong Escape (84MW), Gulpur (102MW), and others.
Many Pakistani engineers and technicians have been trained in advanced technology through these projects, which have played a critical role in water management and electricity supply, thus achieving world-class operation and maintenance (O&M) standards, particularly related to large hydropower stations such as Tarbela Units 1-14, with a cumulative capacity of 3,478MW, and Ghazi Barotha at 1,450MW. Interestingly, some small hydropower plants like Rasul, Kurram Garhi, Chichoki and Shadiwal, commissioned between 1952 and 1961, are still operational, generating significant electricity without any major refurbishment or overhauling.
China entered Pakistan’s hydropower sector in a significant way in the 2000s, beginning with the awarding of the 969MW Neelum-Jhelum project contract in 2007 to a Chinese contractor. The project faced long delays and cost overruns before its commissioning in April 2018, with a final cost of $5.1 billion. Structural issues, including major cracks in the 3.5-km tailrace tunnel, have led to repeated shutdowns and reduced power generation capacity.
Earlier, the contract for the construction of Gomal Zam Dam and its 17MW hydropower plant was awarded to a Chinese company in 2002 on a single-bid basis, and it was commissioned in 2016. However, the plant has suffered from significant efficiency reductions due to problems with machinery and infrastructure, sometimes leading to complete shutdowns.
It was a breakthrough for the Chinese to win the contract in 2021 for electromechanical equipment for the Tarbela 5th Extension hydropower project of 1,530MW, valued at $241 million, against international competitive bidding. Currently, China is also engaged in the construction of the Mohmand Dam and hydropower project (800MW), costing $1.9 billion, with completion expected in 2026. The Chinese are also constructing the first stage of the Dasu Dam and hydropower project (4,320MW) under World Bank financing.
At Dongfang Electric Corporation (DEC) in Chengdu (and the College of Water Resources & Hydropower of Sichuan University), European engineers were engaged in the transfer of advanced technology. Now, DEC has emerged as one of the two global leaders in China
Under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), significant Chinese investments have been made in hydropower infrastructure, strengthening the nation’s reliance on renewable energy. Two Independent Power Producers (IPPs), Karot Hydropower (720MW, operational since June 2022) and Suki Kinari (884MW, commissioned in September 2024), are performing satisfactorily. Under-construction projects under the CPEC programme include Kohala (1,124MW), to be completed in 2034, and Azad Pattan (700MW) in 2032, while planned projects include Thakot Hydropower (4,000MW) on the Indus River and Bunji (7,100MW) in Gilgit-Baltistan. On the other hand, Sinohydro of China is investing in the Turtonas-Uzghor 82MW hydropower project, scheduled for completion in 2029.
Criticism of Chinese-built hydropower projects citing delays and substandard equipment needs to be viewed in the correct perspective. Large-scale hydropower projects face challenges related to location, geological conditions and infrastructure availability, among other factors. International contractors were unwilling to undertake projects like Gomal Zam due to security concerns in South Waziristan, leading to a suspension of work in 2004 and resumption only in 2007. Similar concerns surrounded Neelum-Jhelum, with escalating India-Pakistan tensions deterring foreign contractors at the time.
In the case of large projects such as the Diamer Basha Dam and the hydropower project in Gilgit-Baltistan, international contractors have shown little interest due to geopolitical concerns. Consequently, only the dam and associated infrastructure are being constructed in the first stage, with the hydropower component (4,500MW) planned for subsequent years.
China mastered hydropower technology through large-scale projects like the Three Gorges Dam, which played a pivotal role in advancing its expertise in dam construction, power generation and water management. Completed in 2012 with an installed capacity of 22,500MW, it is the world’s largest hydropower station. Chinese firms invested heavily in hydropower R&D, leading to breakthroughs in turbine technology, flood control and sediment management.
During more than a dozen official visits to China until 2001, I witnessed the progressive transformation of Chinese technology in various sectors. For example, at Dongfang Electric Corporation (DEC) in Chengdu (and the College of Water Resources & Hydropower of Sichuan University), European engineers were engaged in the transfer of advanced technology. Now, DEC has emerged as one of the two global leaders in China in the manufacturing of hydropower turbines and generators.
The performance of European hydropower firms in Pakistan has also been problematic. The Mangla Refurbishment Project, aimed at upgrading eight of ten units (originally 100 MW each) to extend their life and increase capacity to 1,310MW, was awarded to General Electric (GE), France. Despite a project cost of over $423 million, co-financed by USAID and the French Development Agency (AFD), work has been delayed beyond contractual timelines. The first two units were completed in May 2022 and two more in December 2022, but the remaining units are still incomplete, with completion expected in 2027. In contrast, other contracts for auxiliary equipment, awarded to various firms, including Chinese companies, were completed on time.
While Pakistan continues to rely on multiple international partners for hydropower development, it is imperative to ensure transparent bidding processes, quality control and timely execution to maximise the benefits of this vital energy resource. Expanding domestic technical capabilities and leveraging international expertise will be key to unlocking Pakistan’s full hydropower potential.
The writer is a retired chairman of the State Engineering Corporation and former member (PT) of the Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Authority.
