The recent negotiations at COP29 in Baku have set in motion the ambitious yet essential ‘Baku to Belem Roadmap to 1.3T’. This framework aims to close the staggering gap between the $1.3 trillion that developing countries require annually to combat climate change and the $350 billion currently pledged.
The recent negotiations at COP29 in Baku have set in motion the ambitious yet essential ‘Baku to Belem Roadmap to 1.3T’. This framework aims to close the staggering gap between the $1.3 trillion that developing countries require annually to combat climate change and the $350 billion currently pledged.
While the roadmap is scheduled for finalisation at COP30 in Belem, Brazil, the timeframe between these two conferences provides a critical opportunity to refine its mechanisms and align them with the principles of climate justice, the polluter pays principle, and common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR-RC). The task ahead is monumental, requiring a coordinated, equitable, and transparent global effort to achieve this unprecedented financial target.
The $1.3 trillion target represents a financial challenge of unparalleled scale. To put this into perspective, this sum exceeds the annual GDP of countries like Indonesia or the Netherlands and is comparable to Australia's entire economic output. It dwarfs previous climate finance milestones, such as the $100 billion annual commitment by developed countries under the Paris Agreement, which itself remains unmet. It is also over twice the global foreign direct investment flows recorded in 2023. Such a figure underscores not only the ambition of the roadmap but also the immense economic, political, and institutional efforts required to meet this goal.
The challenge becomes even more complex when considering that the funds must be mobilised annually through mechanisms that do not exacerbate the debt burdens of vulnerable nations. Achieving this target is not just a matter of economic management -- it is a moral and existential necessity.
A significant portion of the $1.3 trillion must come from developed countries, whose historical emissions have been the primary drivers of the climate crisis. These nations should collectively commit at least $500 billion annually through public funding mechanisms. National budgets must prioritise climate finance, redirecting funds from nonessential expenditures, such as subsidies for fossil fuels, toward renewable energy development and adaptation projects in the Global South.
In addition to direct contributions, developed nations must implement robust carbon pricing mechanisms. A globally coordinated carbon tax of $50 per ton on high-emission sectors could generate more than $200 billion annually, providing a sustainable revenue stream for climate finance. Such measures not only align with the polluter pays principle but also create incentives for a broader transition to low-carbon economies in industrialized nations.
While public funding is critical, it will be insufficient to meet the $1.3 trillion target. Mobilising private sector investments is essential, and this requires innovative financial instruments and supportive regulatory environments. Green bonds, which have already seen remarkable growth in recent years, should be scaled up further to attract institutional investors. Governments can de-risk private investments through guarantees, subsidies, and public-private partnerships.
Sustainability-linked loans and climate funds can also provide targeted financing for renewable energy, infrastructure, and mitigation projects. The private sector could realistically contribute $400 billion annually, provided the right incentives are in place. Furthermore, multinational corporations, particularly those in high-emission industries, should be required to dedicate a portion of their revenues to climate finance initiatives through voluntary or regulated mechanisms.
Philanthropic contributions represent another underutilised but critical source of climate finance. Large philanthropic organisations, such as the Bezos Earth Fund and the Rockefeller Foundation, have begun to prioritise climate action, but their efforts must scale significantly. A collective contribution of $50 billion annually from the philanthropic sector is achievable if targeted toward high-impact projects in the most vulnerable countries.
Multilateral development banks (MDBs) also have a pivotal role to play. MDBs should reorient their lending portfolios to focus on climate-related projects, leveraging their ability to mobilise additional capital through co-financing arrangements. Special drawing rights (SDRs) issued by the International Monetary Fund could also be partially reallocated to climate finance, potentially adding $100 billion annually to the pool.
Many developing countries face unsustainable debt levels, which severely constrain their ability to invest in climate resilience and mitigation. Debt-for-climate swaps offer a pragmatic solution, allowing creditors to forgive portions of a country’s debt in exchange for commitments to invest in climate projects. These arrangements not only free up fiscal space but also ensure that funds are directed toward actionable climate goals.
A well-coordinated global initiative for debt-for-climate swaps could release between $50 billion and $100 billion annually, providing much-needed relief for debt-strapped nations. This mechanism aligns closely with climate justice by addressing the structural inequalities that have left many developing countries unable to finance their climate ambitions.
Global solidarity mechanisms, such as international financial transaction taxes or levies on aviation and maritime fuel, could provide additional revenue streams for climate finance. A modest tax on international aviation fuel, for instance, could generate $10 billion to $20 billion per year. Similarly, a progressive global wealth tax targeting the top 0.1 per cent of earners could yield another $50 billion annually. These mechanisms embody the principles of equity and responsibility, ensuring that the burden of financing climate action is distributed fairly among those with the greatest means to contribute.
For the roadmap to succeed, robust mechanisms for transparency and accountability must be established. The progress report due from the COP29 and COP30 presidencies in November 2025 should serve as a comprehensive evaluation of commitments made, funds mobilised, and their allocation. This report must go beyond superficial metrics, providing detailed insights into the effectiveness and equity of financial flows. It should also include independent audits to ensure that funds are being used efficiently and reaching the most vulnerable populations. Transparency is critical not only for building trust among nations but also for sustaining political and public support for ambitious climate finance initiatives.
Structural challenges within recipient countries, such as governance weaknesses, high borrowing costs, and limited access to financial markets, must be addressed through targeted interventions. Capacity-building initiatives, supported by both financial and technical assistance, should aim to strengthen institutional frameworks in these countries. Additionally, programmes to improve transparency and accountability in the use of climate funds will be essential for ensuring that financial resources translate into measurable outcomes. Without addressing these barriers, even substantial financial commitments risk being underutilised or misdirected.
The Baku to Belem Roadmap to 1.3T is not merely an ambitious financial target; it is a test of the international community’s resolve to act collectively and equitably in the face of the climate crisis. The next year offers a crucial window to refine this framework, ensuring that it embodies the principles of climate justice, the polluter pays principle, and CBDR-RC. If successful, the roadmap will not only provide the resources needed to combat climate change but also signal a transformative shift toward a fairer global economic order.
Failure, on the other hand, would deepen existing inequities and undermine trust in international climate governance. As COP30 in Belem approaches, the world must seize this moment to translate ambition into action, ensuring that the roadmap is both practical and just. The stakes could not be higher: the success of this initiative will shape the planet’s future for generations to come.
Pakistan’s policy roadmap to attract climate finance should begin with operationalising its national climate finance strategy that aligns with international frameworks and emphasises transparency, accountability, and scalability. The country must position itself as a viable and credible destination for climate finance by enhancing its institutional capacities and ensuring the effective use of funds.
The National Climate Change Authority could be operationalised to coordinate efforts, streamline access to international funding mechanisms, and integrate climate finance into national development planning. The authority should focus on developing bankable climate projects, particularly in renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, and climate-resilient infrastructure while aligning these projects with Pakistan’s nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement.
To enhance its attractiveness, Pakistan should strengthen its regulatory and investment environment to incentivise private-sector participation. Establishing green investment frameworks, such as green bonds and sustainability-linked loans, can create opportunities for international investors while promoting transparency and de-risking investments. Tax incentives and guarantees for renewable energy and adaptation projects could further stimulate private sector interest.
Pakistan must leverage its membership in global climate initiatives, such as the Green Climate Fund (GCF) and Adaptation Fund, to secure concessional loans and grants. Building partnerships with multilateral development banks and bilateral donors to co-finance large-scale climate projects will also be critical for scaling up financial flows.
Finally, Pakistan must address structural barriers that hinder access to climate finance, including governance inefficiencies and limited technical capacity. Investments in capacity-building programmes, particularly for local governments and project developers, will enable the preparation of high-quality, bankable proposals that align with donor priorities.
Strengthening monitoring and evaluation mechanisms to ensure accountability in fund utilisation will build trust among international donors and attract sustained financial commitments. By combining institutional reforms, private-sector engagement, and capacity-building initiatives, Pakistan can position itself as a frontrunner in attracting the climate finance necessary to address its climate vulnerabilities and transition to a low-carbon economy.
While public funding is critical, it will be insufficient to meet the $1.3 trillion target. Mobilising private sector investments is essential, and this requires innovative financial instruments and supportive regulatory environments
The writer has a doctorate in energy economics and serves as a research fellow in the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI). He tweets/posts @Khalidwaleed_ and can be reached at: khalidwaleed@sdpi.org
