The Middle East is once again burning in the blazes of war. On Saturday, US-Israel launched deadly strikes on Iran, killing the country’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and plunging the country in a leadership vacuum.
Besides the supreme leader, various other top Iranian officials were also killed in these strikes, including the top security adviser Ali Shamkhani and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander-in-chief Mohammad Pakpour.
In retaliation, Iran also launched attacks on various countries in the Middle East, vowing to avenge the killing of Khamenei.
Khamenei took power in 1989 and emerged as a face of resistance during the Iranian revolution against the Western imperialism.
The assassination of Khamenei has not only created a power vacuum in Iranian leadership but also left the top leadership scrambling to manage the transition of power.
The power transfer comes at a critical time when the US is preparing for regime change by dismantling the established 1979’s ruling structure and placing the Western-friendly administration in the position of authority.
Talking about the transfer of power, questions come to mind: who will be the next supreme leader of Iran? Who are the top successor candidates? And how will the next leader be chosen?
The supreme leader is the top position in the Islamic Republic’s political system. The role of supreme leader, known as Rahbar, is built on the concept of the velayat-e faqih system as it gives the leader both absolute religious and political authority.
The ultimate authority rests with the supreme leader as it holds various constitutional and military powers. He is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces and leads the IRGC. He appoints the judiciary, military and half members of Guardian council.
According to article 111 of Iran’s constitution, in the case of leadership crises, a temporary council handles duties until a new supreme leader is elected.
Currently, the council consists of:
Ayatollah Alireza Arafi from the Guardian Council was appointed to the three-member temporary council.
Method of electing supreme leader
Iran’s supreme leader is selected by the Assembly of Experts which is an 88-member clerical body elected by the public every 8 years.
Prior to referring to the Assembly, the candidates are vetted and approved by the Guardian Council.
When the position becomes vacant, the Assembly of Experts holds the authority to choose a potential successor with simple majority.
Candidates must be senior jurists with deep knowledge of jurisprudence in Shia Islam.
They must possess qualities such as political judgement, courage, and administrative capability.
Mojtaba Khamenei who is the Khamenei's second son is among the top candidates to rule the country as the next supreme leader.
Despite this, being the supreme leader is a major issue for him as his father did not like the idea of power transfer from father to son. This kind of “family hand-off” is unpopular in Iran as the country fought a revolution to get rid of monarchy.
His key strength lies in his well-known and influential connections with the IRGC and administrators.
He is an ultra-hardliner clerical voice in the establishment and a member of the Assembly of Experts and described as the "theoretician" of Iran’s ultra-conservative political wing. Mirbagheri is known for his views critical of the West.
He is also viewed as the intellectual leader of the Front of Islamic Revolution Stability, representing the most uncompromising and super-revolutionary faction within the Iranian establishment.
Arafi is another influential figure in the religious establishment, serving as a key member of the Interim Leadership Council following the death of the supreme leader.
Arafi is a high-ranking cleric and seasoned administrator who has long been seen as a pillar of the religious and political establishment. He also serves as the deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts and has been a member of the Guardian Council.
Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei is a senior Iranian cleric and currently heads Iran's judiciary since 2021. He is widely regarded as a hardliner conservative. He is also appointed as a key member of the Interim Leadership Council.
Owing to his deep ties to the establishment and his long-standing loyalty to the regime’s core ideology, he is considered as a potential candidate for the position of supreme leader.
Hassan is also among the widely-discussed names in succession talks. He is the grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini and custodian of his grandfather’s mausoleum.
Being a reformist, he is known for his moderate views on policy and public life. In 2016, he tried to run for the Assembly of Experts, but was blocked by the Guardian council due to inadequate clerical qualifications.
According to Francis Fukuyama, regime change is really really hard and lessons from Afghanistan and Iraq are enough to prove this.
Fukuyama continued, “People have been fantasizing about Reza Pahlavi’s son coming back as a successor. The opposition is so fragmented that they basically have to unify around somebody; they need some figure who can provide them a little bit of coherence and stability. If it is the Shah’s son, maybe that will happen. I think that compared to Venezuela, they have a much tougher road to hoe.”
Because the Islamic Republic has been in power since 1979, it isn't just a government; it is a massive, complex system. Replacing it isn't as simple as winning an election or switching leaders, he added.