Finland left tipped to win on anti-austerity vote

HELSINKI: Finns voted on Sunday in a general election where anti-austerity sentiment looked set to propel the opposition Social Democratic Party back to the head of government for the first time in 16 years.

The left-wing party leads Finland’s two main opinion polls with about 19 percent of the vote, having campaigned against the steep cost-cutting of Centre Party Prime Minister Juha Sipila and his Finance Minister Petteri Orpo -- leader of the conservative National Coalition Party.

But the far-right Finns Party, led by hardline MEP Jussi Halla-aho, has seen a surge in support in recent months during an anti-immigration dominated campaign, urging people to "Vote for some borders".

Polls showed the Finns Party ending up in second or third place, meaning it could hold significant influence in the talks to form the next government, which in Finland is typically a coalition of three or four parties.

The count of the record 1.5 million advance votes, over a third of the electorate, will be revealed at 8:00 pm (1700 GMT), with an official forecast based on most votes counted due around two hours later.

The heated debate during the campaign -- over welfare, immigration and climate change -- led some analysts to predict that turnout would be high. One predicted the high advance turnout and tight poll margins would make this "the liveliest election of the 2000s".

Forecasts suggest no party is likely to draw more than 20 percent of the vote, meaning the result could be historically close and making negotiations to build a government coalition particularly tricky.

On Sunday, queues were reported at some polling stations in the capital. The current government’s cuts to Finland’s prized education system, and a tightening of unemployment benefit criteria, provoked loud and widespread public opposition.

Petteri Orpo, leader of the conservative National Coalition Party and co-architect of the government’s savings programme, has denounced the Social Democratic Party’s anti-austerity plans as "irresponsible". However, in a tacit acknowledgement that the public mood is against further belt-tightening, Orpo has insisted the economy is now strong enough to allow for some more generous public spending.

Opinion polls suggest the Social Democrats’ lead has narrowed in recent weeks to as little as two points, ahead of the National Coalition and Finns Party which are battling it out for second place.

Some have blamed the shrinking lead on the inability of party leader Antti Rinne, a 56-year-old former trade union boss, to attract large numbers of new, younger voters. The growing Finns Party ratings, on the other hand, appear to be driven by new supporters who have not voted in the past.

The anti-immigration Finns Party also decries the "climate hysteria" of other parties seeking action against global warming. At one of its rallies on the eve of the vote in Myyrmaki, a disadvantaged suburb of the capital, a crowd of people, young and old, clamoured around party leader Jussi Halla-aho, asking for autographs and congratulating him on the campaign.

"You will be the next prime minister," one woman assured him. Halla-aho has sought to dispel accusations that he hopes to keep his party in opposition after the election, so as to avoid facing the tough decisions of being in power.