Ground realities

Here are six political ground realities. Reality 1: PM Imran Khan is convinced that his lifeline lies in conflict and confrontation – not in reconciliation. Reality 2: The opposition hasn’t come up with any solution to our real problems (wheat, sugar, electricity). Reality 3: Political parties and their workers have come out – not the masses. Reality 4: The government exists more on Twitter, TV talk shows and in government offices – less on the ground. Reality 5: Nothing is happening in parliament – everything is happening out on the streets. Reality 6: The PTI government is now using – and abusing – its ‘establishment card’ for its own purposes.

Here are five economic ground realities. Reality 1: Over the past two years, poverty in Pakistan has gone up from 30 percent of the population to 40 percent of the population; an additional 20 million Pakistanis have fallen below the line of poverty. Reality 2: This is the third consecutive year of stagflation, meaning ‘persistent high inflation combined with high unemployment’. Reality 3: Our national debt is now more than our GDP (at 107 percent of GDP). Reality 4: Our economy is now completely dependent on external debt. Reality 5: Our GDP went into the negative for the first time in 62 years.

The opposition is working on two parallel processes: street demonstrations plus back-channel negotiations. Yes, street demonstrations are to pressurize back channel settlements. The opposition has three goals: force a re-think by the ‘establishment’; weaken the government and create political space.

For the record, the opposition’s attempts to pressurize the ‘establishment’ into a re-think have so far failed. Up next for the opposition is a long march towards Islamabad and potential resignations from the assemblies. History is witness that the ‘establishment’, because of its constitutional obligation, always stands by an elected government – but only up to a point (that point is when the people come out). History has also witnessed that the ‘establishment’ has always stood for the interests of the country – and not that of a particular political party.

The PTI is up against three ground realities. Reality 1: The shelf life of the PTI’s original ‘anti-corruption narrative’ has expired. Reality 2: Brand Imran Khan is fast losing value. Reality 3: The gulf between the ‘PM’s realities’ and ‘ground realities’ is now as wide as the Indian Ocean. In my opinion, PM Imran Khan still has time to prove his worth (his time will end when the people come out). The PM needs to do three things: control inflation, create jobs and reconcile with his political opponents.

Here are four other facts (originally narrated by Dr Nadeem ul Haque): All political parties in Pakistan stand for four things – attainment of power; preservation of the status quo (absolutely no reforms); prosecuting their opponents; and blaming the past.

The current status quo is made up of four elements: inflation, unemployment, lack of governance and a party-in-power not willing to reconcile with other political parties. In my considered opinion, this status quo is not sustainable. Once again, what the PM needs to do is three things: control inflation, create jobs and reconcile with his political opponents. Time and tide, I have been told, wait for no one.

The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad.

Email: farrukh15@hotmail.com Twitter: @saleemfarrukh