Low-income voters key to Boris’ success: study

LONDON: Low-income voters helped deliver Boris Johnson’s election landslide, with Labour trailing the Tories among poorer Britons for the first time, an analysis has shown.

A major report into voting behaviour at the 2019 election found the Tories established a 15-point lead over Labour among people on low incomes.

The study found that the Tories were more popular with people struggling to make ends meet than they were among wealthier voters. But both parties now face a battle for the support of poorer voters, as they are set to suffer the brunt of the economic fallout from the coronavirus crisis.

Research for the anti-poverty Joseph Rowntree Foundation think tank warned that low-income workers potentially face a “double injustice” as they were less able to isolate themselves at home and are now most exposed to the worst economic effects of the Covid-19 crisis.

The report said: “Remarkably, the Conservatives are now more popular among people on low incomes than they are among people on high incomes. The Conservatives are no longer the party of the rich, while Labour is no longer the party of the poor.

“The Labour Party that Sir Keir Starmer recently became leader of is today just as popular among the wealthy as it is among those on low incomes. Both parties have inverted their traditional support base.” The report examined evidence from the British Election Study which found that in 2019, 45.4 per cent of low-income voters backed the Conservatives, with 30.6 per cent backing Labour. Among high-income voters the figures were 40 per cent for the Tories and 30.8 per cent for Labour.

The work, by Matthew Goodwin of the University of Kent and Oliver Heath from Royal Holloway University of London, found that Johnson’s promise to “level up” the nation, combined with his support for Brexit, helped win over Labour voters. But the report added that the Conservatives will “need to work hard to retain that support”.

For Labour, the challenge is to “urgently revive its offer – especially given tentative evidence that it is low-income voters who, unjustly, will be affected the hardest by the outbreak of Covid-19 and the accompanying economic crisis”.

Professor Goodwin said: “Most of the Conservative Party’s new votes from low-income voters came direct from Labour, with key factors including Brexit, negative perceptions of Labour’s leadership and economic plans, and a Conservative advance among working class voters, pensioners and non-graduates.

“Both parties need to work hard to appeal to this group, which is now badly affected by the coronavirus crisis. “Labour is now just as popular among the wealthy as it is among those on low incomes, meaning that despite the change in leadership it still needs to reconnect with its traditional base if it is to achieve a majority in any future election.

“Low-income voters remain crucial and their votes are likely to remain volatile as the country moves out of the coronavirus crisis.”