South Asia and Covid-19

The novel coronavirus is a pandemic that is affecting every country and region around the globe. The detrimental effects of this virus will be felt for years to come. Just the economic cost globally is predicted to be around $4 trillion by the Asian Development Bank.

Even though this is a global pandemic, countries are turning inwards. Borders are closed down, citizens are under lockdown, and international institutions have to grapple with issues of influence, cooperation and interaction. There is a rising trend of isolationism, protectionism, ethnocentrism, racism, and inequality. We are witnessing new types and forms of discrimination and inequalities where immigration/travel is being shut down for certain nationalities, and new types of health barriers and an international blame game.

There are new forms of racism being created, fanning the flames of already existing hatreds. The blame game is never ending and sowing new seeds of discord.

Global supply chains have been thrown into disarray by these very policies of protectionism that are being adopted by countries all over the world. We are witnessing that as the fear and panic increases, there is a rise in countries opposing global cooperation and exchanges and instead they want to store and keep things for their own citizens. Yuval Noah Harari says that the world order post-Covid “will lead to a new form of inequalities between the badly affected and the hardly affected, the digital working population and the non-digital working population, the knowledge workers vs. the non-knowledge workers.”

No country or region in the world exists in a vacuum. The ripples from one region can be felt in almost all parts of the world and unfortunately, South Asia has all the makings of a public health disaster. The region is economically unstable, poorly governed, marred with political instability, terrorism and faced with persistent conflicts. The coronavirus threatens South Asia’s post Covid-19 social and economic environment. South Asia is also densely populated, has poor health infrastructure and is geographically close to some of the countries that were hardest hit by the coronavirus. The number of cases in this region is on the increase, despite measures being taken by the countries to halt the spread of the deadly virus.

As a region, South Asia has some of the highest urban population density in the world. Five of the top ten most densely populated cities are located here. More than a fifth of the world’s population resides here and contributes to more than 15 percent of global economic production. As it is a densely populated region, the consequences of a Covid-19 pandemic in South Asia is bound to be catastrophic. With no immediately available vaccine to deal with Covid-19, adopting and enforcing social distancing, semi or selected lockdowns are the only means available to governments to control the spread of the pandemic.

The World Bank has estimated that almost 70-100 million could be forced into extreme poverty by this pandemic and its aftereffects. Considering the case of South Asia, early estimates are that the economic activity could shrink by almost 2.7 percent in 2020. This will be in large part due to the restrictions, lockdowns, and uncertainties and will most certainly lead to a decline in private investments.

South Asia has often been grouped into the concept of a broad ‘Rising Asia’; however, the coronavirus pandemic will most definitely slow its growth exponentially. It is going to widen the already large difference in prosperity between South Asia and the rest of Asia. World Bank statistics show that in 2018, the average per capita income of South Asian countries was $1,900; compare that to over $4,500 for members of Asean and almost $9,700 for China.

When Covid-19 hit, Pakistan was in the midst of its first years of a loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The very strict austerity steps and policies demanded by the IMF as a condition for the loan were already responsible for bringing growth to an almost standstill. As things stand today, growth is expected to remain low in the foreseeable future. Any economic upturn demands revival of exports. This is difficult due to low production and the fact that Pakistan’s main export markets are facing economic downturn triggered by the pandemic. As such, in the short run, the forecast for any economic revival appears rather bleak.

All the South Asian countries need to reflect collectively on their priorities, their state capacities and on what are the most pressing challenges and threats facing them. The solution lies in greater cooperation. One of the most inspiring steps was the March 2020 video conference between all members of Saarc, which has struggled for years, mostly because the India-Pakistan rivalry is a hurdle in its efficient working.

Over the years, one has witnessed that any ‘disaster diplomacy’ (prompted by calamities) only remains transitory. Despite the challenges of Covid-19 which threaten the population and the economy, the region remains largely divided and poorly integrated in any unified measures to tackle the invisible enemy. Political rivalries remain an impediment to unified actions.

The key question is: will the current efforts at diplomacy through Saarc revive regionalism or inevitably lead down the same road of bitter enmity?

Natural disasters are short-lived events. When nature strikes, damage is caused and measures are adopted to rebuild and rehabilitate. Invariably, the long-term effects of a disaster are ignored. Paradoxically, the Covid-19 crisis is something the world has not seen before as it is changing the global political economy. It is changing the way countries relate to each other and even the way humans behave. Its effects are going to be profound and long-term and will be the impetus for new relations between countries.

What remains to be seen is whether this crisis will usher in a new era of peace and collaboration within our region or whether South Asia remains stuck in the quicksand of tension and bitter enmity. Only time can answer this complex question.

The writer is a research officer at the Institute of Regional Studies.