Census concerns

We are yet again faced with a census exercise that – while apparently near completion – already has red flags all around it. The deadline for Pakistan's first digital census was April 10, but the government has decided to extend it by five days. Previously, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) also suggested recounting at least 40,000 buildings in the country. Until Sunday (April 9), around 40 million households were geo-tagged by PBS authorities. But like previous census exercises, the 2023 census has once again given rise to disagreements over Karachi’s population count. The country’s only metropolis has a population of 16 million, according to the 2017 census. But this figure is disputed. And political parties consistently maintain that they do not agree with the data released. The MQM has raised concerns that enumerators have undercounted Karachi's residents. Needless to say, this would lead to major data flaws. Their initial estimates suggest that the city’s total count will be undercounted by seven to eight million. PPP leader Saeed Ghani has also criticized the census, saying that the PPP’s recommendations were not included.

And political parties are not the only stakeholders who are sceptical. The PBS’s suggestions of recounting raise a few eyebrows. Of the 40,000 buildings selected for the recount, 30,000 are in Karachi. There are fears that these buildings may not have been counted at all. In a study published in 2022, experts estimated that Karachi’s population is increasing by 0.5 million annually, primarily due to inter-city migration. Given this rate, the city’s total count should be 18.5 million to 19 million in 2023. This is in line with the country’s population growth rate. Independent researchers are also concerned over the possible exclusion of homeless people in Karachi. Some have suggested that enumerators should do a headcount of people at night to see how many are sleeping on footpaths, inside parks, in their rickshaws or trucks, or in factories to have a better understanding of the homeless in Karachi – and in Pakistan.

Till Sunday (April 9), Karachi’s population stood at 13.76 million. Performance issues like delays and counting errors have led to concerns that the 2023 census count will somehow even be less than that of the 2017 census. PBS officials have dismissed all such speculations, and believe that towards the end of the exercise, the final count will be without any errors. Right after residents started complaining about no visits from enumerators, the PBS launched complaint numbers and encouraged residents to inform the officials about the problems they faced. PBS officials have repeatedly thanked the provincial governments for making the process easy but it is equally important for the authorities to pay attention to issues raised by political parties and experts. Pakistan is likely to see elections this year, and to put an end to allegations of rigging during election and then during the all-important resource allocation once a government is formed, it is important for Pakistan to have a transparent population count.