Now that Jeremy Corbyn has eased himself off the fence, and pledged a second Brexit referendum, those of us who would like to give the public a chance to vote on facts, not fantasy, should take a cold, hard look at how a fresh public vote might go.
Now that Jeremy Corbyn has eased himself off the fence, and pledged a second Brexit referendum, those of us who would like to give the public a chance to vote on facts, not fantasy, should take a cold, hard look at how a fresh public vote might go.
A second referendum was only ever going to be possible if it became Labour policy. The defeat of Labour’s plan for a softer Brexit makes it so. But it does not yet command a parliamentary majority. And the prime minister’s pledge to let MPs vote to delay the date on which the UK leaves the EU, subject to EU agreement, makes it more likely that her deal will pass. Yet while the European Research Group and the Democratic Unionist party fear delay, and might therefore end up backing Theresa May’s deal, the retreat from the cliff edge also liberates moderates to oppose her.
If the EU were to propose a longer extension, a referendum could come closer. What, though, might the outcome be? Few people have changed their minds. Remain has gained support, but mainly from those who did not vote in 2016. Voting intentions are far from conclusive. One poll this week found 55 per cent for Remain and 45 per cent for Leave. But the latest average of six polls suggests a narrower gap: 53 to 47 per cent, echoing the situation in the run-up to the 2016 referendum.
Second time around, voters might be more willing to tune in to the detail. But any version of Leave still has the edge in emotional resonance, while Remain feels remote and technocratic. Few people understand global supply chains, or non-tariff barriers, nor do they want to. And economic uncertainty plays both ways. There is a strong feeling of “just get it over with”. Thirty per cent of people identify with the idea that “the longer the stalemate over Brexit goes on, the more likely I am to support leaving the EU without a deal”, according to the pollsters Survation. Remainers who talk only about economics fail to connect with people whose vote was about culture and fairness.
The caricaturing of 17.4m Leavers as ignorant bigots has hardly endeared them to alternative views. When my late father voted for Brexit, it was not because he was bothered about immigration, on which he was profoundly liberal. He was an intellectual who wanted powers returned to the nation state, and took the opportunity to rebuke what he saw as a nest-feathering elite. It was impossible to convince him of a serious economic cost. He took the view that it would be good riddance if bankers left these shores and house prices fell — young people would get on the housing ladder, he said.
Most of all, he resented being told what to think. The day I seriously thought the referendum might be lost, others in Number 10 were jubilant: Barack Obama warned that Britain could be “at the back of the queue” for trade deals with the US.
“I don’t know what that Cameron and Osborne think they’re doing” said my father on the phone that night. “How dare they get the US president to tell us how to vote?” My father was a diehard Americophile. But he didn’t like being patronised. That Mr Obama might have been right didn’t register.
Today, my father might concede that “Project Fear” had a point after all. He would probably feel the EU has shafted the UK in the negotiations, and that perhaps we should remain for the sake of working people whose jobs are at risk. But he would be equally tempted to double down. “Tell them again” will be a potent slogan for Leavers.
Who would be the face of a second Remain campaign? Mr Corbyn’s commitment to the referendum is lukewarm. One former prime minister, Tony Blair, is divisive. But another, who has seemed to ride above party politics, appealing to decency and commonsense patriotism, is John Major. Any campaign to remain in the EU should capture his tone of regret at the likely damage to the UK and eschew bombast.
It is still unclear what question would be put to the voters. Labour proposes a choice between Remain and “a credible Leave option” — this could be a version of Mrs May’s deal. But her deal is merely the gateway to further, crucial negotiations with the EU on our future economic relationship. It will not be possible to tell the public what sort of long-term relationship is actually on offer until the withdrawal agreement has passed and negotiations have been undertaken in earnest. So the debate within the EU27 about whether to accept Mrs May’s demand for two extra months, or to permit a longer extension, becomes very important.
