ENERGY
The government’s oft-repeated claim of eliminating electricity load-shedding across the country by March 2018 is not likely to realise, given the present conditions. First, the major power projects may not come on stream as per announced schedules due to a variety of factors including technical, physical, and financial limitations. Secondly, transmission lines for dispersal of electricity from the under-construction power-stations might not be completed in time due to slow progress achieved so far.
It is interesting that the officials of the Ministry of Water and Power attending the Senate’s Standing Committee for Water and Power on August 29 admitted that the transmission and distribution system is currently overloaded and unable to disperse fully even the existing power generation capacity, but failed to give the present status and timeline of various new transmission projects. An obsolete, inadequate, underdeveloped and poorly managed transmission system, which has not been upgraded and modernised for decades, has caused increased forced outages in the system multiple times. Besides, strengthening and upgrading the existing transmission and distribution system for stability, efficiency and reliability of power supply, the augmentation and expansion of integrated system of 500kV and 220kV transmission lines and substations and associated equipment to despatch additional planned power to the major distribution centres across the country is of critical importance.
Also, power generation and transmission have to be coordinated effectively to ensure optimum usage and development of the transmission system, which unfortunately is not being done. There has been insignificant construction of new transmission lines during the past ten years in comparison to the requirements, in spite of generous funding by the World Bank, Asian Development Bank (ADB), Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and KfW Germany for the development of Pakistan’s power transmission system. The inadequate capacity and lack of timely interconnections with the transmission network have also proved to be a major bottleneck in case of Nandipur thermal power plant and Allai Khwar and Duber Khwar hydropower stations. When the projects were commissioned, the corresponding transmission lines were not completed. While a 132kV double circuit transmission line has been constructed recently for evacuation of power from Nandipur thermal power station, directly within Gujranwala load centre, the interconnections of Allai Khwar and Duber Khwar power stations to 132kV system have not been done as yet.
Among the planned power projects of some 10,000MW cumulative capacity by March 2018, mega projects are the under-construction Neelum-Jhelum of 969MW installed capacity and Tarbela Fourth Extension of 1,410MW hydropower projects. For evacuation of power from Neelum-Jhelum power station, a 270km long 500kV double-circuit transmission line from Neelum-Jhelum to Gujranwala is being constructed in two phases.
First phase containing 145 kilometre transmission line from Neelum-Jhelum to Domeli (near Rewat) is currently under construction, where it will be connected with the existing 500kV Rewat-Gujranwala transmission line as a temporary arrangement for power evacuation from Neelum-Jhelum powerhouse. Remaining component of 130km long transmission line from Domeli to Gujranwala will be constructed in the second phase, along the extension of 500kV Gakkhar and Rewat substations, ultimately enabling the full power evacuation through 500kV Neelum-Jhelum-Gujranwala transmission line. The first phase of the project was to be completed by December 2015, and the second phase by December 2016. Nonetheless, the project has been delayed inordinately, and progress achieved so far is about 70 percent.
For dispersal of power from Tarbela Fourth Extension, no additional 500kV transmission line shall be constructed since existing lines are capable for evacuation of power generation from the new powerhouse. List of under-construction hydropower projects also includes 106MW capacity Golen Gol in Chitral, for which Chitral-Chakdara 220kV double-circuit transmission line is being laid and Chitral 220/132kV substation is being constructed as part of the project.
First unit of the two generating units is scheduled for commissioning in October 2017 whereas the whole project, including transmission system, physical progress of which is around 50 percent, is likely to be completed by May 2018. Chasnupp-3 and Chasnupp-4 nuclear power plants each of 340MW capacity are in advanced stages of completion, and the corresponding 220kV Chashma New-Bannu double circuit transmission line, in/out of 220kV Dera Ismail Khan-Jauharabad single circuit line at Chashma and 220kV transmission line from Chashma to Ludewala are under construction, and extension at Ludewala substation is in progress.
An 878 kilometer long 660kV Matiari-Lahore high-voltage direct-current transmission line is to be constructed for dispersal of about 4,000MW power from south to north load-centres of Lahore and Faisalabad. A Chinese company will construct the project on build, own, operate and transfer (BOOT) basis, as one of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) early harvest projects. However, the project, which is scheduled for completion in 30 months, has currently run into snags and work has not yet commenced. The bulk over 4,000MW power evacuated through this transmission line will be obtained in phases from the 1,320MW Port Qasim Coal Project (Karachi), 1,320MW Shanghai Electric (Thar) Coal Project, 660MW Engro Thar Coal Project, and 1,320MW HUBCO Coal Project (Balochistan).
Transmission lines project for dispersal of power from Thar coal based Engro power project includes 250km long 500kV double -circuit transmission line from Engro Thar- Matiari and two-line bays at Matiari switching station. The contracts were awarded under Lot-I (110km) and Lot-II (140km) on December 9, 2015 and June 3, 2016, respectively; however the progress is slow. The Port Qasim-Matiari transmission line project has two phases including Phase-I: 45km 500kV line Port Qasim-Hub Jamshoro line circuit-I, and Phase-II: 135km 500kV interconnection Hub-Jamshoro transmission line to Matiari.
Dispersal of power from 1,320MW Bhikki thermal power station will be through in/out Lahore-Gatti 500kV single circuit line and entails construction of new 220kV/132kV grid stations and extension of 500kV/220kV and 220kV/132kV existing grid stations. Other transmission projects being implemented include 500kV New Lahore (South), 500kV Dera Ghazi Khan, 500kV Shikarpur, extension at 500kV Ghazi Barotha, 220kV Lahore, 220kV Gujrat, 220kV Chishtian, and 220kV Dera Murad Jamali. Projects for dispersal of power from other coal-based power projects in private sector and planned mega hydropower power projects such as Dasu and Diamer-Basha, and for electricity imports from neighbouring countries (Iran and CASA-1000) are in different stages of design and planning. A 500kV high-voltage direct current bipoles line from Zahedan to Quetta and 500kV high-voltage direct current bipoles from Tajikistan to Peshawar are planned for cross border import of electricity.
To meet the projected load growth up to 2030, the National Transmission and Despatch Co Ltd (NTDC) had developed in 2011 a National Power System Expansion Plan associating national and international consultants, which is being implemented in phases, with some modifications and revisions.
According to this Plan, there will be peak load of 41,747MW in 2017-18 and 45,618MW in 2018-19. Adding about 10,000MW to the existing power generation capacity of 23,617MW by June 2018 will not address the shortfall as power demand is growing over eight percent on year-on-year basis. It is ironical therefore that the Federal Secretary Water and Power has said on September 22 at Balloki that there will be 2,000MW surplus power by 2018, particularly in view of the fact that in spite of having over 23,000MW installed capacity, the maximum power supply in any year has not exceeded 16,000MW.
The writer is ex-chairman of the State Engineering Corporation
