Here is a tale of two Brexits. The first is a story of relief and sunlit uplands: relief that June's vote to leave the EU has not shocked the UK economy, as some predicted, backed by encouragingly strong data on jobs, consumer spending and manufacturing. The latest numbers on services, released on Friday, show that growth accelerated in July and that fears of a recession later in the year were misplaced. Whether it was the rapid accession of Theresa May to Downing Street or mistaken predictions, Britain's economy appears to be doing fine.
The other tale is one of uncertainty and anxiety over what kind of Brexit the government is going to push for. This can be seen in Nissan's decision to delay investment in its Sunderland car manufacturing plant until there is clarity over what form Britain's departure from the EU will take. Jaguar Land Rover too has expressed concern about access to the single market and whether tariffs are on the horizon. It is worth remembering that Britain has not left the EU yet and nothing has materially changed. The vote to exit the bloc may not have stopped people spending but it has discouraged businesses from investing.
Sunderland is one of the Brexit battlegrounds. The Nissan car plant was one of the reasons I reluctantly voted Remain: it has played a huge role in reviving the fortunes of my home region of the north east of England after the decline of the traditional shipbuilding and coal mining industries. It was Margaret Thatcher, then prime minister, who persuaded the Japanese group to invest in the UK, citing membership of the single market and the stable political climate as a reason to come to Sunderland. Both of those things may soon change.
The area may have benefited from EU membership but a resounding 61 per cent of voters in Sunderland backed Brexit. On referendum night, the strong Leave vote there was the first signal that a Leave victory was on the cards. The area has its fair share of "left behind" voters - those who voted to leave after concluding that mainstream British politics had nothing left to offer them. As research by the Centre for European Reform shows, the more economically integrated with the EU an area is, the more likely it is to be Eurosceptic. Even though such places have fewer migrants than metropolitan areas such as London, they tend to be more sceptical of immigration.
It is in these areas that the Brexit dilemma facing the government is most acute. If Mrs May is unable to negotiate tariff-free access to the single market - and remaining in the single market is off the table, according to Liam Fox, international trade secretary - then Nissan may invest elsewhere in Europe. While if the government does not find a way to limit migration, many of those who voted for Brexit will feel betrayed.
A compromise is possible but it will not be easy. Mrs May will make her plans for Brexit more concrete in her speech to the Conservative party conference on Sunday. While consumers do not seem especially worried, for businesses such detail will be most welcome.
