Lights out

Once again, the country is in the grip of long and persistent loadshedding of electricity across the country for the past few weeks, though recent rains in some parts have provided temporary relief. There is a wide gap between the demand and supply of electricity in the national grid system whereas there exists adequate power generation capacity. The existing installed power generation capacity from all resources is 37,949-MW in the NTDC system, of which net or dependable capacity is estimated to be at least 35,765-MW — much more than demand during peak hours these days.

While the government no more shares statistics of daily power generation and demand with the public, present generation is certainly disproportionate to installed capacity. During the month of June peak demand was about 30,000–MW whereas total power generation had been limited to 22,930-MW. Power deficit of over 7,000-MW resulted in massive electricity load shedding in the range of 10 to 14 hours in small towns and rural areas and up to 6 hours in urban areas including major cities of Lahore, Faisalabad and Islamabad. The large-scale load-shedding has crippled civic life as well as industrial, trade and commercial activities, with a multiplier effect on the national economy. Karachi is no exception where the residents braced 12-hour load shedding even during the Eid holidays and resorted to protests.

Given the fast-growing needs of some 233 million population, electricity should have been at the center of the government’s policy as 46.6% of total electricity generated is consumed by the household sector. But seemingly this is not the case. The nation has experienced a significant electricity deficit from the start of summer season, whilst there were shortages and outages in last winter — a phenomenon that was not witnessed in the past.

The ongoing outages and loadshedding, both scheduled and unannounced, is likely to persist during the coming months too. The government sources have projected peak demand in July as 26,610-MW whereas maximum generation during this period could be 24,939-MW resulting in a shortfall of 1,422-MW that would cause load shedding or load management for many hours on a daily basis.

Likewise, the month of August is expected to have a shortfall of 2,590-MW as demand for 26,300-MW would surpass the peak generation of 23,710-MW. The energy experts however believe that these projections are not realistic as seen in the past; being lower on demand side and higher on supply side. For instance, demand for electricity in June was estimated as 27,000-MW against actual 30,000-MW, and, at the other end, the NTDC system is not capable of transmitting over 23,000-MW. In spite of significant addition of power generation capacity in the last few years — particularly that of hydropower and other renewable resources — total generation, instead of improving, has remained stagnant at best, with existing capacity being grossly under-utilised.

The power situation has worsened primarily due to inadequate generation, obsolete and deficient transmission & distribution (T&D) system, flawed strategy, imprudent use of available resources and high T&D losses. The total circular debt has now swelled to a colossal Rs2.6 trillion. Independent power producers (IPPs) are facing difficulties in servicing their dues and have cut down thermal power generation drastically to 7,700-MW, despite reliable existing capacity of over 17,000-MW. Also, due to financial constraints, adequate oil supplies are not being made to the powerhouses.

Gas-fired power plants are not getting natural gas/LNG as per their requirement, and forex cover required for import of coal is not available. Most importantly, laxity on the part of the government has resulted in increased technical and collection losses, or electricity theft.

­Energy conservation measures, such as restricted timing for commercial activities in the evening, were either not implemented or did not yield positive results. General perception is that the present electricity load shedding is deliberate to promote installations of solar units at residences and in commercial areas in a big way to meet the vested interests of suppliers of solar energy units in the wake of the government's fast track solar initiative 2022.

Another dilemma is that of import restrictions as power plant operators both in public and private sectors are unable to procure essential spares required for normal operation & maintenance of their power generation facilities, resulting in de-rated capacity. Practically, total reliance is on hydropower generation dependable capacity of 10,752–MW (WAPDA and the IPPs combined), though currently the system generates only 6,200-MW hydroelectric power. The 969-MW Neelum-Jhelum hydropower plant is non-operational for quite some time. Rehabilitation project of Mangla power station has long been delayed resulting in under-utilisation of its full 1,310-MW capacity. Hydropower provides a baseload from June to October when considerable regular water discharges are available, and as a peaking supply for the rest of the year.

Obviously, the government has failed to address the energy crisis effectively. It has paid no serious attention to the mismanagement, inefficiencies and a host of other institutional issues of the power sector. The situation thus presents one of the most serious energy crises, which could have political repercussions too. The high-inflation stricken public is already agitating against soaring pricing of electricity. The media has recently highlighted that the average electricity cost is highest in the region, higher by about 60% against that of India and 40% when compared with Bangladesh.

Sadly, adequate electricity at affordable prices remains a distant dream for the country’s some 135 million consumers despite tall claims by the successive governments.